Methods For Determining The Reasonable Maximum Of Cellular Load In Spatial Load Forecasting

Spatial load forecasting is the foundation of the urban power system planning, the accuracy of prediction directly impacts the rationality of investment, network layout and operation of urban power system planning. Therefore, as the premise and matting of urban distribution network plan, a high precision of spatial load forecasting result for urban power system planning has important significance.In the past much research work is focused on proposing and improving SLF methods, rarely from the perspective of studying SLF data preprocessing method to improve the forecasting accuracy. Generally, annual maximum of cellular load is used in the spatial load forecasting. The application of maximum of measured data directly in the spatial load forecasting, will leads error, which has some accidental factors influence that are more likely brought into the forecasting results, and result in a decrease in forecasting accuracy. So, SLF data preprocessing method is important for improve the forecasting accuracy.This paper introduces in detail the research status of spatial load forecasting method, and analyzes the classification of various SLF data preprocessing methods about the advantages and disadvantages respectively. Then according to different classification principle the power load is classified and the concepts of power space resolution and power supply district division rules are introduced to analysis the characteristics of urban electricity power space load. Then PCA theory is applied to SLF to put forward the maximum of cellular load determined based on the PCA method. In view of uncertain considering cellular load characteristic, the maximum of cellular load determined based on the EMD method is proposed combined with EMD theory. Finally, the maximum of cellular load that the two methods determine are used to realize spatial load forecasting by traditional methods. A study shows that the two methods are effective, and the maximum of cellular load determined based on the EMD method is better than another method.