Research On Self-similar Bandwidth Prediction Of Information Gathering Service For Power Distribution And Utilization Of Smart Grid

With the large-scale interconnection of power grid, the power communication network plays an increasingly significant role in ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid. As an important platform to realize bidirectional interaction between power grid and the users, power distribution and utilization network is an essential part of the power communication network. In order to satisfy the demands of information, real-time and smart, it is required to deploy a large number of information gathering and monitoring points in power distribution and utilization network. Thus the number of communication nodes and services keeps rising as a result of presenting self-similarity in information gathering service traffic. By accurately grasping the characteristics of service traffic and further achieving the reasonable prediction of service bandwidth, bandwidth resource will be reasonably allocated while ensuring users’service quality.Given the above issue, a calculation method based on queuing theory is proposed to predict communication bandwidth for the self-similar services in this thesis. Firstly, the formation mechanism and characteristic of information gathering service traffic is analyzed, moreover, a model on information gathering service traffic is constructed based on multiple ON/OFF data sources superposition. Secondly, the Hurst coefficient of the service simulation traffic is estimated by using the time variance method, and the quantitative analysis of self-similarity is realized with the aid of Hurst coefficient estimation results. Finally, by adopting Fractal Brownian motion model to describe the arrival process of self-similar services, this thesis constructs the FBM/M/1/k queuing service bandwidth calculation algorithm model, in which the self-similarity of service traffic is fully considered. Taking the typical electricity information gathering service in the 13th five-year program of power grid as an example to carry on the experiment analysis, the simulation results show that the service quality is guaranteed and the bandwidth utilization ratio is improved by using the algorithm which is proposed in this thesis.