Research And Implementation Of Power Quality Early Warning Mechanism Based On A Variety Of Forecasting Methods

In modern society,accordingly, the quality of electric power receive more and more attention by generation unit and the majority of users. However, on the one hand, the increase of users make a rapid increase in the load of the power system, on the other hand, the huge power grid also has a growing number of polluting electrical equipment. So the power quality is suffering an unprecedented impact. In response to the serious power quality problems increased recently. We should conduct predictive analysis for the electrical power quality indicator based on its grid operation status. So we can identify problems in advance, reduce or avoid losses caused by electrical power quality problems.In the research of the prediction of the power quality data indicator,preventing or avoiding the loss caused by the electrical power quality problems, forecast accuracy is very important. There is a certain correlation between the active power and the voltage deviation, frequency deviation, harmonic, three-phase voltage imbalance, voltage fluctuations and flicker in the power quality steady data. Firstly, the paper use the combination of ARIMA and ARTXP prediction algorithm to predict the active power and the value of five indicators.Then model the decision tree to analyze the correlation between the active power values and other indicators. Using the predictive value of the active power predicted by the combined model to predict other indicators. Analyzing the accuracy of two forecasting methods and select the optimal model for its prediction. Then select the most appropriate model for a data indicator forecast as an input of the early warning system.In the warning subsystem, we compare the predicted value and standard limits and give the appropriate warning signals according to the results.Then ntify staff via SMS or e-mail timely. Finally, coding to achieve steady-state indicator forecasting and early warning system, providing strong support for the safe and stable operation of the power system.Research done in this paper and its function,beneficial to discover the power operation system already existing or potential security problems timely, so we can take appropriate measures to ensure continued safe and stable operation of power system.