Estimation Of Sectional Passenger Flow On Urban Rail Transit

Nowadays, in China, the urban rail transit(URT) in many cities has stepped into an era of network operation instead of single-line operation. What is different from the single-line operation is that the network operation requires seamless tranfer, which means passenger could transfer between lines without checking out. Thus, people pay more and more attention to the the scientificity and rationality of URT operation. The core of URT operation is the passenger flow. The estimation of sectional passenger flow helps understand the evolution regularity of passenger flow and then helps schedule the operation plan, which could make URT operation become more scientific and more rational. Based on the background, a method to estimate real-time sectional passenger flow on URT under the condition of network operaiton is proposed in this paper.At first, literature reviews on both passenger flow O-D(origin-destination) assignement methods and sectional passnger flow estimation methods are elaborated. Then after analyzing the historical O-D data recorded in the AFC system, reasonable time scale to summarize the O-D assignment regularity is obtained with the method of cluster analysis. After studying the station/transfer passenger flow regularity and the passenger walking time regularity along the channel to the platform, a model of calculating the amount of real-time passenger on the flarform is deduced with the method of probability theory. Methods of cluster analysis, attraction weight coefficient and mathmatical statistics are used to deduce the line O-D metrix with the AFC historical data, so that the amount of passengers to get off the train at each stations could be calculated. At last, based on the above two data, a model to calculated the real-time sectional passenger flow in URT under the condition of seamless tranfer is established with the iterative method. And feasibility of the model and algorithm is proven by setting numerical examples.