The Impact Of Overconfidence On Asset Pricing In Technology Growth

Economic historians often linked the wave of economic activity with significant technological changes. The industrial revolution, the use of electricity and the Internet led to the development of all corporate value and the development of the whole economy. Meanwhile, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring, re-development of technology once again attracted investor overconfidence mind, so exploring effects of the overconfident investors’psychological on the process of asset pricing in technological growth has important significance for investors investment and asset pricing.Based on the overconfidence psychology of Company, combined with the characteristic technology growth in asset pricing technology, referring to the research achievements of scholars, the technology shock is divided into two forms, namely "big", mutation of technological innovation and the "small", the gradient of technological change. Considering the technological growth, put micro factors overconfidence psychological of companies and technology growth of macroscopic combination, mathematical models are constructed respectively study the affect of overconfidence on Asset Pricing in the age of technology and technological change and growth. On the basis of complete market, theoretical analysis about investment decision-making behavior to maximize the value, the effects of the investors" overconfidence on production and consumption caused by technology shocks and predict the future consumption growth and excess returns and their relationship, conclusions are more close to reality.Based on the model established, the presence of overconfidence can not only bring forward company’s optimal investment time, thus bring forward the arrival of output peak and consumption peak, but also increase the company’s value, the volatility of consumption and expected returns. From both the model and the reality we also can be drawn, overconfidence do not change the anti-technological cyclical of expected return, but investors overconfidence could reduce the lag between expected return and consumption.