Research On Risk Management Of National Debt

The China Financial Futures Exchange launched the trading of Treasury futures simulation17years later since the Treasury future was closed since1995. The launch of the simulation trading means not far away from the formal launch of Treasury futures. The events of "Treasuries327" in1995led to a hasty closure of Treasury future, which was trading less than three years. Lack of institutional protection, futures companies can conduct illegal operations. The early closure of Treasury futures values the importance of risk management. Without risk control, the losses of the investors may become very large in a highly leveraged transaction environment. It is necessary to study the risk management of the Treasury futures before the formal launch of bond futures, so that regulators and market traders can prepare to manage the risk after the formal launch of the T-bond futures.The first chapter describes China’s early history of Treasury futures and the base of re-launch of Treasury futures. Then it introduces the Treasury futures simulation contract, and finally finishes domestic and foreign literatures on Treasury futures. The second chapter introduces the concept, features and functions of the Treasure futures. Then it highlights the risk types and sources of risk for Treasury futures. The third chapter use static risk measure model and dynamic risk measure model measured the risk of Treasury futures simulation trading. Though timeliness result of the static model is lower than the dynamic one, the validity of the static model is higher than the dynamic one. The fourth chapter introduces the international mainstream national financial regulatory mode. And it pointed out that the "One Top Three Levels " mode suitable for the development of China’s Treasure futures regulatory. And it discusses the risk control tools taken by participants in Treasury futures market. The fifth chapter does a summary of the full essay and offers several policy recommendations. And it prospects future research directions.This essay uses a mathematical empirical model and an inductive deductive method to study the risk management of China’s Treasure futures. The innovation of this essay is systematically studying the risk management of the treasury futures, firstly using mathematical empirical methods to measure the value of treasury futures risk. In addition, the essay also conceives of "One Top Three Level" to fit futures risk regulatory model.