| The intermediary goal of the monetary policy, also known as the intermediary variable of the monetary policy, it is the middle and conductibility finance variable that carries out a monetary policy’ final goal, and the link of the monetary policy of the central bank circulate a anticipate influence on the macro-economy. From1995, the Chinese monetary policy object settles for "hold the stability of the monetary value, and promote economic growth with it", and use money supply as intermediary goal and operation target. Because the economic financial system reforms going deep, and the finance markets is continuously perfect, whether money supply can be the intermediary goal is turning into a problem. In order to hit the final target effectively by operate the monetary policy, picking an appropriate intermediary goal means a lot. Under the essential trend of interest rate marketization, the interest rate is very likely to take the place of money supply in the days to come and become the intermediary goal of Chinese monetary policy.In order to test whether the market rate of interest is able to reflect the policy orientation of the monetary authority, thus as the operation object of monetary policy, this text transforms traditional Taylor rule, and join exchange rate variables, then put forward the expansibility Taylor’s model, and collect macro-economics data from1998to2009including CIBOR, CPI index, GDP data, and rate of exchange...etc to test the model.The mainly innovation points of this text is:The First, in the traditional model of Taylor takes the impact of exchange rate movements on the actual economic under the Open economic environment into account, and joined the exchange rate variable; The second, gives up the standard structure in Taylor rule, which sets Real interest rates balance to2%and target inflation rate to2%,and make assumptions based on the actual situation of China’s economy; The third, while calculating the inflation rate gap factor and output gap coefficient, doesn’t set the factors a, P as a fixed value(=0.5) in traditional Taylor’s equation, but get these factors by using regression equation on the model.The fourth, on the analysis process of make theoretical analysis on Chinese Taylor type rule model, pay more attention to the combination of China’s monetary policy in the different stages of analysis of the characteristics, rather than considering the conventional economic theory. The fifth, when make te empirical examination on the Taylor rule in China’s monetary policy, I respectively adopt general Taylor rule model and incorporated into the real effective exchange rate factor of the Taylor rule model to test Taylor rule’s application in China with empirical and quantitative analysis, and then into the exchange rate factor of the Taylor rule on monetary policy effect better fitting, in order to provide the theory support.This text uses inter-bank offering rate as monetary policy target, by testing the expansionable Taylor’s model which takes the exchange rate factor into account, shows that this interest rate is able to reflect and explain the central bank’s monetary policy, so as to use this interest rate as an important frame of reference of Chinese monetary policy, and then concludes that, to some extent, this interest rate can act as operation target and operation tool of China’s monetary policy.By using the expansionable Taylor’s model which is based on China’s macro-economic situation data and takes the exchange rate factor into account, it also concludes that:The first, from the view of China’s monetary policy interest rate sensitivity of the output gap, to adjust the factors higher than traditional values shows that China’s monetary authorities is inclined to the actual promotion of economic growth while formulating the monetary policy; The second, from the view of the sensitivity of the rate of inflation,although interest rates and inflation change in same direction, which is in line with the actual economic situation, but the change range of interest rates less than that of inflation-which is probably caused by Chinese interest rates not fully market-oriented-is likely to make China’s monetary policy unstable; The third, from the view of the sensitivity of the interest rate to the exchange rate factor, China’s monetary policy is also instability, which probably because RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is far away from meeting the requirement of floating exchange rate. But on the other side, it is also for the same reason, the relationship of changes of Chinese interest rates and exchange rate also reflects China’s monetary authority policy, which further verified the conclusion that expansibionable Taylor’s model interest rate can be used as an important frame of reference of Chinese monetary policy. Fourth, the real effective exchange rate and interest rate have to change the same relationship, the exchange rate can be used as a reference for monetary policy factors. Fifth, output gap coefficient is much higher than the rule of Taylor, the central bank indicated that more consideration in policy formulation promoting growth factors. In sixth, adding an effective real exchange rate after the rule of Taylor, to the inter-bank offered rate as intermediate monetary policy fitting higher. China’s monetary authorities in the formulation of monetary policy and macroeconomic regulation, should be the real effective exchange rate movements into which were taken into account, in order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy.Based on the conclusions, this test reached that despite the conclusion of the test model to support the idea that interest rate can be used as an important frame of reference of Chinese monetary policy, but the rules still has limitations to be fully implemented in China.;First, in fact, using interest rate as the goal of monetary policy is instability. With the changing of interest rates, using the nominal interest rate as the goal of the operation goal will aggravate the volatility of the economy inevitably; Second, the article uses CIBOR as market interest rates. However, in Western countries, the mainstream benchmark interest rates are deposit and loan interest rates, while China’s deposit and loan interest rates have not yet fully liberalized, which is the great obstacle to the Taylor rule to be all-round used.On this base, this text forward the policy recommendations that maybe useful to China in the future to replace the money supply with interest rate as an intermediary goal of monetary policy:First, the need to further push forward the process of marketization the interest rate so as to effectively raise the effect on real economy when adjusting the interest rate; Second, to further improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, which is also the requirement of managed floating exchange rate system of RMB. |
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