| The impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables is called the monetary policy transmission mechanism. In theoretical research, monetary policy transmission mechanism includes two channels:the monetary channel and the credit channel. Currently, because of the developed indirect financial system in our country and the effective control to the commercial banks by the central bank, the most important channel in China is the credit channel.Since1998, with the drastic fluctuation of global economic environment, the tone of China’s monetary policy has been changed frequently, and it caused the unsteadiness of the effect of the monetary policy. So the paper does in-depth discussions and researches on the asymmetric effect on real economy of the monetary policy.In the part of theoretical analysis, firstly the paper introduces several classic theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism credit channel and the formation mechanism of monetary policy’s asymmetric effect. Then, the paper analyzes the applicability of these theories on China, and summarizes the features of China’s current monetary policy transmission mechanism. In the part of empirical research, the paper divides the transmission process into two stages on which the followed econometric tests based. The main econometric model is VAR, and the specific method includes unit root test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition methods. The results of tests show that the effect of tight monetary policy is stronger than that of expansionary policy in the first stage, but the effect of tight monetary policy is weaker than that of expansionary in the second stage. And the result of empirical research is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis. In response to this result, the paper analyzes the concrete reason of this phenomenon from the aspect of banks and enterprises, and gives some recommendations to help improve the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy. |
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