Research On Forecasting Model Of Enterprise Cash Holdings

Listed companies in China in the wake of the financial crisis are paying more and more attention to their own level of cash holdings, sufficient cash holdings for normal business operation and development has very important practical significance, but also can guarantee the enterprise in a financial crisis, the public relations crisis and the security crisis would be able to survive. Foreign scholars for the influence factor of corporate cash holdings theory and empirical studies have been very mature, but most of the research method of the corporate cash holdings using static analysis method, research hypothesis and research content confined to theoretical level, enterprises in daily production and business operation and can’t satisfy the assumptions of these theories, on the basis of these methods cannot effectively cash management. This paper tries to set up ARMA model for listed companies of food industry.In this paper, through selecting each quarter in 2006-2014 cash holdings of time series data, combined with the enterprise itself factors that influence the level of cash holdings of listed companies to meet certain conditions of food industry of cash holdings ARMA model is set up. Through empirical analysis the last conclusion is: in the food industry listed companies in the enterprise internal cash substitutes less, larger scale and ownership structure in the first big shareholders holding low condition, can get the food industry listed companies cash holdings of ARMA model, and get the corporate cash holdings of ARMA model of short-term prediction effect is well. In this paper, for the food industry in the listed companies in accordance with the specific conditions of corporate cash holdings of short-term forecast provides an effective way and method, make the food industry listed companies to conduct reasonable and effective cash management and set up long-term financial strategy, the determination method of listed corporate cash holdings for every profession and provides a new way of thinking.