On Regional Differences Of The Sustainability Of Chinese Basic Old-age Insurance System For Urban Workers

Currently, the deficit risk of the pension fund in some areas gradually showed up along with the increasingly grievous aged population. Then, the sustainable development of old-age insurance system is becoming a focus of studies. In order to keep the pension-insurance benefits of residents, government is required to make large payments increasing year by year to insurance fund system. As the number of region in deficit increasing continuously, the gap in revenue and expenditure of old-age insurance fund continues to widen. It may not be long before the old-age insurance system meet financial crisis. So it is meaningful and necessary to discuss the validity of financial subsidies and analyze the present situation and future trend of the old-age insurance fund of the whole country and some exceptions.In this paper, urban worker endowment insurance is studied as test subject. Its sustainability is measured by the gap in revenue and expenditure of old-age insurance fund. Following is the analytical structure of this paper. First, this paper analyzes the present situation of old-age insurance fund based on its revenue and expenditure from 2002 to 2014. Second, choosing the Inner Mongolia autonomous region and Guangdong province as examples, the paper constructs a regression model to predict and assess the gap from 2020 to 2050. Third, it uses the correlation analysis method to establish the link between the financial subsidies and the gap of old-age insurance fund. Then, the special analysis is focused on the strong or weak tie. Last, the paper provides possible suggestion to solve the problem according to the result.Through the above analysis, we can get these results: One, there are large differences about the urban worker endowment insurance’s sustainability among the different provinces in our country. Two, fiscal support among different regions given to the basic old-age insurance is basically reasonable. Three, from sub-regional perspective, fiscal support in eastern areas of China matches the gap of old-age insurance fund better than those in western. Four, for a while, financial subsidies is one of the important measures to release pressure on the payment and bridge the gap of funds for basic old-age insurance. But, the fundamental solution to the problem is realizing nationally overall plan.