The Analyisis Of Brokerage Risk Spillover Effects On Commercial Bank

China’s financial supervision is gradually relaxed, links between the financial sector increasingly close and business cooperation frequently. Because of this business dealings, formed the risk spillover channels between brokerages and commercial banks, which means that the financial risk is not limited to itself, but also the risk of spillover from other financial institutions. Ignoring the risk spillover will lead the risk to be underestimated and be cumulative, ultimately detonated systemic financial risks. Under the same financial market environment, brokerages and commercial banks are the two big financial main bodies in financial markets, and have common businesses penetration and cross between them. Therefore, empirical research for brokerage risk spillover effects on commercial bank is of significance.Using methods of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in this research mainly. First, this paper sums up the research situation at home and abroad of financial risks, and clear off the vein of the financial risk method. Then, based on discussing the formation of risk and financial risk transmission theory, this paper discusses in detail the motivation and the model of the cooperation in the brokerage and the bank to highlight the business ties between the two, and analyze the risks of commercial banks and brokerages spillover mechanism. After the theory analysis, the article focuses on the quantitative study of risk spillover effect. By using GARCH-CoVaR method, selecting thirteen banks and five brokerages as the research object, and measuring risks faced by financial institutions, finally, it came to the conclusion that the higher the level of significance, the financial institutions risk level greater value; risk spillover strength of the brokerages and level of risk the Banks themselves are inversely related; in general, brokerages for most of the commercial bank’s risk exists positive spillover effect, for a small number of their own high level of risk of joint-stock Banks’risk is reverse spillover effect. Finally, for the brokerage risk spillover effects on commercial bank, the article makes five suggestions for risk prevention and control measures:perfecting market monitoring mechanism; establishing an effective system of the risk; constructing information platforms; updating Banking Supervision Perspective; motivating the financial innovation.