The Dynamic Study On The Relationship Between Rural Finance And Rural Economy Of Shandong

In our country, the agricultural population accounts for a large proportion. The rural economy is an important part of national economy. As a big agriculture province in our country, agricultural output of Shandong has been always among the top. How to promote the rural economy of Shandong developing sound and rapid is the problem to be solved at present. As the core of modern economy, finance can optimize the distribution of social resources. At the same time, finance can also come into its own in improving the efficiency when it allocate the resources, so as to promote the development of economy. In recent years, the development of rural economy in Shandong province has made some progress. However, if Shandong province wants to develop the rural economy quickly, it needs more support and promotion of rural finance. Therefore, the research of relationship between rural finance and rural economy in Shandong province has practical significance.In this paper, we choose Shandong province as the research object and select the data of 1985-2014 as time data. We use the co-integration test, granger causality test and set up vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationship between rural finance and rural economy in Shandong province. This paper analyzes the relationship between them from the long term and short term perspective. And on this basis, considering the develop status of rural finance and rural economy in Shandong province, we proposes to increase the contribution rate of rural finance in order to promote the rural economy of Shandong province.We get the following major conclusions:(1) The Density of rural finance, the rural financial structure and the rural financial development efficiency of Shandong province have a co-integration relationship the rural per capita GDP of Shandong province. This shows that the rural financial development in Shandong province has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship with the rural economy.(2)In the view of long term, the related rate of rural finance has significant positive influence to the per capita rural GDP. When the related rate of rural finance increases 1%, the per capita rural GDP increases by 1.767%.In the meanwhile, the rural financial development efficiency and the rural financial structure of Shandong province also have significant positive influence to the per capita rural GDP. It explains that the related rate of rural finance, the rural financial development efficiency and the rural financial structure of Shandong province can promote the rural economy of Shandong province.(3) From the impulse response, when the related rate of rural finance exposures t a positive impact from external, it has a negative influence to rural per capita GDP in the short term. After that, the influence is going to be positive. In the short term, the rural financial structure has a positive influence on the rural per capita GDP. However, the resources distribution density of rural finance has little impact on the rural per capita GDP.(4) The empirical result shows that, the related rate, the development efficiency and the structure of rural finance are all the Granger cause of the change of rural per capita GDP. But the distribution density of rural finance is not the Granger cause of the change of rural per capita GDP.