An Empirical Study On The Bubbles In China Stock Market From The Perspective Of Investors’ Sentiment

In the rapid development of modern economy, the stock market is the most sensitive and the most active areas of financial activities, has become an important platform for the allocation of social capital. With the integration of global economy and the instant of information dissemination, the complexity and volatility of the stock market has reached a very high level. In recent years, the happening and burst of the stock market bubble, can closely affects the overall economic operation on the macro, and direct impact on the change of personal assets on the micro. At present, the research of the test or measurement of the stock market bubble is quite a lot, which is carried out from the point of view of macro economy, public opinion and so on. Because of the difference of investor’s behavior style and the uncertainty of data understanding, these research methods can be observed in the stock market bubble, but there are some problems in the direct and clear. This paper make bubbles in Chinese stock market as the research object, with the sentiment of stock market investors for observation, directly in the stock market to screen indicator of trends in consideration of investors as the research variables, around how to test and metric of the stock market bubble, based on the knowledge of probability and statistics, with the computational capability of statistical software, through correlation analysis, factor analysis and logit model regression analysis, constructing the mathematical model and empirical research, in order to explore the effective method about the metric and test of the stock market bubble. The break through previous studies the practice of macroeconomic data, economic policy and media, will observe the direct line of sight on the stock market investors, has the certain theory significance of promote the theory and method of the research of stock market bubble deepening. At the same time, has certain practical value of help investors understand the state of the stock market bubble to prevent in the market frenzy in fall into the non rational trap, also for regulators in the assessment of the stock market bubble to provide reference information, help to determine bubble.