A Study On The Influence Of U.S. Monetory Policy On China’s Cross-Border Capital Flows

This paper is set to study the U.S. monetary policy and the correlation of cross-border capital flows from 2008 to 2015. Firstly, it focuses on the paper that is about existing U.S. monetary policy and the related literature of cross-border capital flows which can be divided into the theoretical basis of quantitative easing, international monetary policy conduction theory research and international monetary policy conduction empirical research. Based on the method of comparative analysis to take round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States compares the difference between analysis and relevant quantitative easing monetary policy comparison and evaluation. Next to the international transmission channels of monetary policy theory of mechanism analysis, the interest rate and exchange rate channel of transmission mechanism by respectively expounded and summarized. This article chooses between January 2008 and January 2008 monthly data, using the method of time series analysis, using the vector autoregression model constructs the Chinese cross-border capital inflows (CF), the carry (SPREAD) of China and the United States, the dollar against the RMB real exchange rate (E_RATE) index, the QE quantitative analysis indicators (M2_US), China’s manufacturing industry to adopt and purchasing managers index (PMI_C) the five indicators to implements and exit the quantitative easing monetary policy for the United States on China’s influence to quantitative analysis of the role of cross-border capital flows.Finally empirical conclusion is that:the United States monetary policy through the exchange rate, interest rate between two channels influence cross-border capital flows to China, and changes in U.S. monetary policy can cause a certain degree of impact on China’s capital flows. Among them, in the corresponding period, this paper studies China’s cross-border capital flows less affected by the dollar/yuan exchange rate volatility; And spreads of China and the United States is relatively more obvious influence on China’s cross-border capital flows, to balance the long term trend. In the article in the end, puts forward relevant policy Suggestions from three aspects.