The Research Of Effect About Matching Of Central Bank Communication, Market Expectation And Monetary Policy Tools

Central bank communication refers to the central bank to disclose monetary policy information to the relevant subjects and to seek the information to communicate with the object to understand the identity of the information communication process. In recent years, as management is expected to gradually become the core task of monetary policy to regulate and control the, central bank began gradually abandoned in the past, the "secret of culture, began to" open and transparent, and prefer to use central bank communication way to pursue and realize the goal of monetary policy. Therefore, central bank communication has become "new monetary policy intervention tools". Although the practice has made great progress, because of its strong "art" characteristics, the central bank communication related research is still in a very preliminary state. On the basis of previous studies, this dissertation summarizes the theory and practice of central bank communication, and puts forward the relevant policy recommendations and guidance for the specific practice.On the basis of a comprehensive review of existing literature, this dissertation traces what is the central bank communication? What is the impact of the communication between the central bank on the credit market and the capital market? And this dissertation will study the effect of the combination of central bank communication and traditional tools. In a clear definition of the central bank communication definition, indicating its effectiveness relationship with the monetary policy, the article focuses on the study of the central bank to communicate the impact of the real economy and the virtual economy. In this dissertation, we construct the two error correction VEC models, a detailed analysis of the indicators of the bank of communications to the entity economy indicators-- added amount of credit and fictitious economy, the Shanghai composite index monthly return impact. This dissertation analyzes the central bank communication to bring China’s economy impact and influence through the ADF test, cointegration test, impulse response, variance decomposition and the impact of the cointegration relationship graph measurement method. The results show that: the central bank communication on the credit market and the capital market has a significant influence, and written communication on the economy strong stimulation on the verbal communication, also from the variance decomposition results to see, central bank communication to adjust the economic contribution rate is relatively high. Therefore, according to the results of the study, this dissertation argues that the central bank communication can be used as a new type of monetary policy intervention tools combined with the traditional monetary policy intervention tools, in order to achieve the best results.After the empirical test, this dissertation analyzes the communication practice of the People’s Bank of China, and puts forward the policy suggestions to improve the communication practice of the People’s Bank of China. Policy recommendations are divided into two parts, respectively, corresponding to the real economy and the virtual economy. At the same time for the two markets, this dissertation also gives the central bank communication and traditional monetary policy intervention using a portfolio of policy recommendations.