The Research Of The Impact Of Margin Trading Business On The Stock Market Volatility After The Opening Of Refinancing

The introduction of margin trading on the stock market that ended the state of one-side market which has been implemented over the years.In order to solve the problem of insufficient funds the securities when securities companies carry on the margin trading,the securities market formally introduced refinancing in August 28,2012.The opening of refinancing not only play a key role to margin trading,there are aslo the important factors of reform and development of captain market.In order to investigate the impact of margin trading business on the sock market volatility and to verify the effects of margin trading in the sock market during operation.The issue has been analyzed from the view of theory and positivism.Firstly,The preface focuses on introducing the works on this topic and research meaning and present study to make preparation for the later analysis.Analyzing qualitatively the impact of margin trading business on the sock market in the theoretical view.Secondly,this paper choose the CSI-300 index and margin trading balances as the variables,use the GARCH model to simulate the volatility of the stock market and analytical data by event analysis method answered the question that if the impact on volatility of securities exists.Then,using financial time series to make an empirical test,through the VAR model. The impact of margin trading business on the sock market at different stages was investigated via the using of other test modes:ADF test,Granger causality test,co-integration test,error impact test and variance decomposition.Results showed that there is a long-term effect relationship between margin trading business and the sock market volatility.In a long term and on a steady rise, short selling trade could cause the positive fluctuations of stock market and financing transaction on the contrary. margin trading business could lead to heightened volatility in the phase of rapid growth Margin trading business plays a key role to stock market since refinancing opening and in the long term the impact is small effect.Finally,In view of 2015 market crash,this paper use long index indicate bullish sentiment and VAR model to analysis the effect of market.To explain concrete manifestations of margin trading during the market crash.The paper study the impact of margin trading on the sock market volatility systematically and comprehensively and get some new valuable conclusions from empirical analysis by VAR model.