Spacecraft Vunerablity Analysis Based On Debris Cloud Characteristics By Space Debris Impace

With the continuous development of human space exploration activities, the problems of space trash and space debris become more and more serious. These on-orbit debris running at a ultrahigh speed become serious threats to the spacecrafts working normally in their orbits. In order to guarantee the safety of the spacecrafts, the measure usually taken is to reinforce the protective layer of spacecrafts for improving defense capabilities. Meanwhile, accurate risk assessment of space debris impact should be taken.Based on risk assessment of spacecrafts under M/OD environment, this paper presents a methodology of spacecraft vunerablity analysis based on debris cloud characteristics by space debris impace, and discusses the failure modes and failure criteria of the spacecraft systems, subsystems and internal components.First, ORDEM2000 is taken as space debris environment model, and the flux of space debris is obtained through interpolation. Then the geometric model of spacecrafts is described with MSC/PATRAN finite element application software as modeling tools, and it is delivered to the input interface of the spacecraft vunerablity analysis.Based on the blanking algorithm of computer graphics, the processing method of shielding effect is proposed, so the problem of shielding out of spacecraft and between spacecraft components is resolved. The damage tree of spacecraft is established, and the calculation method of the spacecraft failure probability is obtained.Finally, the proposed methods is verified with three standard test conditions by IADC. Compared with other similar softwares, the impact number by space debris is between 0.14% and 5.31%, and error of the failure number is between 0.81% and 9.00%. which verify the feasibility of the proposed methods. Vulnerability analysis is conducted for typical spacecraft components based on the model of debris cloud, and we discuss the effect on the impact probability and failure probability of the components due to different locations and distribution of space debris. The vulnerability analysis method is applied to cubic satellite, and the probability of catastrophic impact and failure of the on-orbit cubic satellite in one year is obtained.