Study On Application Of Group Analytic Hierarchy Process In Wheat Powdery Mildew Forecasting

Powdery mildew is one of the main diseases in wheat diseases, and the widespread occurrence in China.In recent years, with the climate and environment changin g, the Occurrence area of the wheat powdery mildew is continuing to expand and the degree of damage is increasing seriously, which has affected the quality and yield of wheat in china.Forecasting is an important prerequisite for prevention and control of the wheat, being an effective measure to prevent damage in a abnormal state of affairs. Therefore, the research on Forecast of wheat powdery mildew has very important practical significance.According to the characters of wheat powdery mildew, factors that affect the influence of the outbreak, and normal methods for the forecast of wheat powdery mildew are analyzed. In order to cope with the complexity factors that affects the influence of the outbreak of wheat powdery mildew. In addition, the factor of influence is too simple, and lacks the participation of the work experience of experts on plant protection and technicians major in plant protection. In this thesis, the paper presents give a method for wheat powdery mildew forecast based on group analytic hierarchy process method, focuses on the wheat powdery mildew forecast evaluation system is established and the dynamic forecast model is constructed in the form of internet discussion of experts, and design and implementation an Internet discussion prediction support system of wheat powdery mildew forecast. The main work of this paper are as follows:1. The construction of the evaluation system of wheat powdery mildew epidemic prediction.Treat the working experience of experts in the field of plant protection and plantprotection site professional and technical personnel as the leading,and combinethe network business to analysis the multiple occurrence factors of wheat powdery mildew;by collecting comprehensive factors to screen the keys as predictors; prediction scheme based on targets identified with the current forecasts predict actual demand; using analytic hierarchy process method to construct the evaluation system to predict the occurrence of wheat powdery mildew epidemic.2. The research of a dynamic forecast model for wheat powdery mildew forecast based on group analytic hierarchy process method. According to the analytic hierarchy process method, group decision theory is introduced to eliminate the restriction of the subjectivity of individuals; Using systematic cluster analysis method to determine the individual weight of group expert and to embody the influence degree of experience of different experts for the comprehensive prevention and management of wheat plantation and protection; And using the meteorological data from the database of Anhui province crop monitoring and pre-warning platform, the annual report data of wheat powdery mildew, knowledge base, prediction model library and case library and choosing Anhui province as the target area in which wheat powdery mildew happens frequently to verify the practicability and reliability of the model.3. The design and implementation of an internet discussion prediction support system of wheat powdery mildew forecast. Based on the.NET Framework platform, andcombined with SQL servers 2005 database, combined with the actual consultation decision for plant protection, we have developed an Internet discussion prediction support system of wheat powdery mildew forecast. The system is used in the province plant protection systems in the past year, provided it has good effect, not only enhances the prediction of wheat powdery mildew forecasting operability, but also provides information technology forecast platform for wheat disease control work.The group analytic hierarchy process method is applied to the research of prediction and forecast of wheat powdery mildew, according to the model verification and system implementation, the research results are to provide a reliable basis for the management of wheat protection and also give an important reference to other diseases’ prediction.