| At present, the impact of agricultural activities on the ecological system has attracted, more and more people’s attention. Along with the advance of American modern agriculture characterized by large consumption of energy and the growing dependence on energy, agriculture maintained high output, and at the same time increased environmental pollution, energy crisis, food security crisis worldwide, etc issue. Due to the long-term threat to human suffering food shortages, the majority of countries, including Western countries, have failed to get rid of the food shortage crisis until after World War II, which the United States as a sample of modern agriculture expand on a global scale, that has played a positive role in addressing food shortage. But most modern agriculture are all producing based on the increasing consumption of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, processing, packaging, storage, distribution, etc. By the angle from energy use, the US agriculture farming methods are considered one kind of lowest efficiency farming. mode. This mode of production driven by markets and globalization make the above-mentioned problems have become increasingly prominent. In this situation, the organic agriculture and other environmentally friendly agricultural production as "alternative agriculture" is growing. However, Can organic agriculture lead agriculture out of the plight of American agriculture and improve energy efficiency and reduce environmental pollution? Different scholars based on organic agriculture and examine different cognitive approach to the study, but we get rather controversial conclusions.In order to explore the differences and long-term performance between organic and conventional farming in terms of energy efficiency and environmental effects, look for the path of the current development of agriculture and improvement measures, This paper constructed a duplex model by using system dynamics, and simulated the differences and trends of environmental effects of organic farming and conventional farming based on the survey of two typical(one organic and one conventional) vineyards in Hangzhou. The results show that the presence The organic farming and conventional farming methods are some differences on energy efficiency and environmental effects under the same level of output. Specifically, units output value of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in organic vineyard were lower 37%-51%, 22.49%-37.27% than conventional grape throughout the simulation period, but the energy consumption per unit of production is higher per unit of production more than 1.16-1.34 times; There is not much difference between organic and conventional production per unit of output value in the environmental effects of acidification and eutrophication load, but to a certain extent, there is probably slightly higher risk of acidification and eutrophication; As with the economic efficiency, organic grape early profitability is poor, quite late with conventional production methods. In the long run, organic grape production in the ring has some potential to ease the environmental stress of energy consumption, global warming, acidification and eutrophication etc. As with Simulation of agricultural support policies, policy implementation of agricultural lending policies and land use policies for changing the disadvantage economic situation in early time have none significant effects, relatively speaking, the cost of agricultural subsidies as a transitional policy to change the preliminary economic disadvantages could play a positive role. |