Prediction Of The Invasion Risk For Dithlenchus Dipsaci

With the development of Chinese external trade and the closer connection between China and the world, the volume of import and export increases year by year. Under the circumstances, the volume of import plants from infected countries is rising, and when the products are exchanged, the risk of epidemic becomes increasing. In recent years, many Dithlenchus Dipsacis had been catched. It’s a destructive Parasitic nematodes and it make heavily demage to the host. It has a wide harmfulness in the world, and it’s prohibited by China. Therefore, it’s necessary to use analysis modeling software for predicting the invasion risk of Dithlenchus Dissaci.This article forecasts the potential harmfulness of Dithlenchus Dissaci in China based on GARP niche model and Maxent maximum entropy model. The results indicate that Dithlenchus Dissaci has great suitability and risk to China. All of the diffusion zone and the suitable zone indicated by Maxent are located in the the threatened zone and the diffusion zone indicated by GARP. Both of the two models have proved the temperate regions in the middle China is the suitable area for the growing of Dithlenchus Dissaci.GARP model indicates the threatened zone contains the Middle and South China,included Shandong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Fujian,Shanxi; the diffusion zone(8-9)contains Gansu,Neimenggu,the east area of Tibet,the south area of Qinghai, the surrounding area of Hainan,etc.,;the suitable zone(5-7)contains the south area of Heilongjiang, the east area of Jilin,the east area of Neimenggu, the middle area of Xinjiang, Taiwan etc.,; the growth zone(3-4)contains a few areas of Heilongjiang, Neimenggu, Xinjiang, Tibet etc.; the safety area contains a few areas of Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Neimenggu, Tibet, Qinghai, Taiwan etc. Maxent model indicates the diffusion zone(0.69-1)contains Henan, Shanxi, Sichuan, Gansu, Yunnan, Hainan etc.; the suitable zone(0.46-0.62)contains the Middle China included Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan, Ningxia, Sichuan, Yunnan etc.; the suitable zone(0.15-0.38)contains the South China include Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi etc.; the safety zone( 0-0.18) contains part of the areas of Heilongjiang, the north area of Jilin, the north area of Xinjiang, the west area of Tibet, the north area of Neimenggu, etc.The research on the suitability of Dithlenchus Dissaci will provide the scientific foundation for PRA and support to Inspection and Quarantine Bureau.