Burn Probability Of Fuelbed Composed Of Mongolian Oak And Pinus Koraiensis Leaf Ignited By Cigarette Ends

In Forest fire prevention laboratory, Fuelbeds composed of Mongolian oak leave and Pinus koraiensis needle were constructed with varied fuel moisture contents and packing ratios. 4320 ignition experiments were conducted by dropping cigarette ends which length is lcm on the fuelbeds to test burning probability of the fuels under varied wind speeds, where Mongolian oak and pinus koraiensis two kinds of fuel type for each 2160 times. A logistic model was established for predicting burning probability by using these variables, and the model analysis. The results show:Fuelbeds could be ignited by cigarette require special environment conditions and fuel status, it is not in any conditions can ignite fuelbeds. For Mongolian oak fuelbeds, it can be ignited when moisture content≤15% and wind speed≥1 m · s-1; for Pinus koraiensis fuelbeds, no fuelbed was ignited when moisture content more than 10% or wind speed lower than 2m·s-1 regardless of fuelbed packing ratio and moisture content.Fuel moisture content, packing ratio and wind speed had extremely significant effects on ignition. No matter Mongolian oak or Pinus koraiensis fuelbeds, moisture content had negative correlated with ignition probability. For Mongolian oak fuelbeds, packing ratio had a complex effect on ignition probability; wind speed within a certain range, it had a positive correlated with ignition probability. For Pinus koraiensis fuelbeds, packing ratio and wind speed had a positive correlated with ignition probability.Occurrence prediction model of Mongolian oak fuelbeds ignited by cigarette is (X1 is moisture content(%); X2 is wind speed(m · s-1); X3 is packing ratio, the same below). The model accuracy was 80%, the misreport was only 30%. Occurrence prediction model of Pinus koraiensis fuelbeds ignited by cigarette is , The model accuracy was 78%, the misreport was only 20%.