Risk Factors Analysis And Predictive Model Initial Establishment Of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease In Ningxia

Objective To investigate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease inNingxia and analyze its related risk factors so as to develop a predictive model for thedisease,which providing the evidence of prevention on COPD.Methods Population-based cluster samples were randomly selected from twelve sitesof four prefectures in Ningxia. All residents at least40years old were interviewed with aquestionnaire and blew the spirometry. Post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC less than70%wasdefined as the diagnostic criterion of COPD. Patients with airflow limitation were furtherexamined by chest radiograph and electrocardiogram so that confirm the COPD diagnosis.We established the database. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen related factorsabout COPD and obtain significant variable to establish predictive model. The predictivemodel was validated.Results4055valid questionnaires were returned from4626actual participants with aeffective response rate of87.66%. Of the4055subjects,1869were male while2186werefemale, the average age was55.5±12.1years.360patients was screened. The overallprevalence of COPD was8.87%. The prevalence of COPD was significantly higher inmale(P<0.001) and rural residents(P=0.043), but not significant in differentprefectures(P=0.167).7statistical significance variables were screened as the most importantrisk factors for COPD from18related factors to establish the predictive model. They aregender, age, body mass index, smoking index, occupational exposure, history of childhoodrespiratory diseases and respiratory diseases family history. The predictive model has highersensitivity (72.1%) and specificity (83.6%). In the COPD patients,73.16%subjects have respiratory symptoms and10%have performed pulmonary function test. Early stagepatients(stage I25.28%，stage II64.17%)has high proportion in the all and only23.61%havebeen diagnosed.Conclusion The COPD prevelance is as high as8.87%in Ningxia which is higher thanthe national overall level (8.2%). It is not significantly different among various regions.Gender, age, body mass index, smoking index, occupational exposure, history of childhoodrespiratory diseases and respiratory diseases family history are the most important risk factorsscreened from18related factors. It is importantly significant to establish the predictive modelfor screening the high-risk group and the prevention and treatment of COPD. Because of thehigh proportion of early stage patients, it is important to implement the preventionmeasurements.