Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis Of Hand-foot-mouth Disease By Moran’s Ⅰ In Hangzhou City

ObjectiveHand-foot-mouth disease is infectious diseases caused by intestinal virus, the tendency of this disease is up in recent years.The reported incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hangzhou city is the five leading incidence of Class A, B and C notifiable communicable diseases.The distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease existed spatial clustering. We can use Geographic information system for spatial clustering analysis to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics,to analyze the different spatial distribution, then to provide the basis for disease prevention and control.MethodsCases of Hand-foot-mouth disease of2011in Hangzhou city were collected by Disease Surveillance Data Report and Management System, the subsystem of Disease Prevention and Control Information System of China.,calculated the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease of13district (county) in Hangzhou city. Based on the different weight matrix, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was developed to test for spatial heterogeneity by the sofeware GeoDa095i. ResultsA total of5534cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Hangzhou city in2011,with63.61per100,000people of incidence rate.Based on Rook weight matrix, global Moran’s Ⅰ index indicated that there was high occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease,with the index as0.33.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that several counties(districts)were high occurrence cluster such as Gongshu district, Xihu district and Xiaoshan district,and several counties(districts)were low occurrence cluster,such as Chunan county and Tonglu county.Based on Queen weight matrix, global Moran’s Ⅰ index indicated that there was high occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease,with the index as0.33.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that several counties(districts)were high occurrence cluster such as Gongshu district, Jianggan district, Xihu district and Xiaoshan district,and several counties(districts)were low occurrence cluster,such as Chunan county and Tonglu county.Based on threshold weight matrix while the smallest Euclidean distance with0.5189,global Moran’s Ⅰ index indicated that there was high occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease,with the index as0.41.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that several counties(districts)were high occurrence cluster such as Gongshu district, Jianggan district, Yuhang district,Xiacheng district,Xihu district,Binjiang district and Xiaoshan district,and Tonglu county was low occurrence cluster,Shangcheng district was low occurrence and high occurrence cluster.Based on K-nearest weight matrix, when k was4,5,6, global Moran’s Ⅰ was statistically significant. The global Moran’s Ⅰ=0.26,0.24and0.23,while in K-nearest weight matrix with k=4,5,6. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis (k=4) indicated that several counties(districts)were low occurrence cluster,such as Chunan county and Jiande county.The accepted level of significance for all analyses was P<0.05.ConclusionThe spatial distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hangzhou city is unrandomly and geographically clustered. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that several counties(districts)were high occurrence cluster such as Gongshu district, Jianggan district, Xihu district and Xiaoshan district, and several counties(districts)were low occurrence cluster, such as Chunan county and Tonglu county.