Design Of Safety Trial-stopping Rule For Both Mortality And Morbidity Under The Positive Correlation Condition

In clinical trails of some drugs development, researchers need to know the probability and the excepted number of test samples of a successful experiment under different situations as a reference; so they can adjust the experimental schemes or plan in time. This paper id based on the specific problem for EPO design of safety, mainly focus on the probabilities model which is under positive correlation and doublestopping rules. EPO a developing new drug is mainly used on early infant brain damage treatment which is due to congenital or postnatal injury.Firstly, the paper describes the relevant background of the problem and the probability model which is under independent condition and double-stopping rules; then I discusses how to solve the problem under positive correlation and get the stopping-time probability model; describing how to calculate and display the coefficient of correlation and the stopping probability of double stopping rules with two different probability methods; finally explaining result and the practical significant of safety design of medical development.The practical issues and applied knowledge of statistics including study of correlation between double stopping rules, the derivation of the coefficient of correlation,logistic model, calculation of conditional expectation and the specific application of Beta distribution and so on.