The Study On The Evolution Of Severe Hepatitis Based On The Hidden Markov Model(HMM)

Chronic hepatitis B is a common disease that seriously threatens people’s health. Acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) is the acute decompensated liver function caused by sharp liver injury based on chronic liver disease. ACLF not only has become the serious disease which threatens the life and health of the HBV-infected people as a result of the difficult clinical treatment and the high mortality rate, but also is one of the hot researched fields. Therefore, the timely and effective treatment is vital to reduce the mortality rate. If the developmental trend of a patient with the liver disease, who is just sent to the hospital, can be assessed timely and accurately, an individual therapy would be established, which not only guarantees the therapeutic effect to reduce the pain for the patient but also decreases the cost of treatment. Nowadays the studies on ACLF focus on pathogenesis, complication, remedy and prognostic assessment, etc., while there are few studies on preclinical studies and prognosis of ACLF.This thesis aims to investigate the evolutionary process of the severe hepatitis. Through cooperating with the Department of Infectious Disease in Southwestern Hospital-the First Affiliated Hospital of Third Military Medical University, treating and analyzing patient’s medical laboratory data and on the basis of prognostic study on chronic hepatitis and ACLP, this thesis has put forward to determine several hidden evolutionary processes of severe hepatitis according to the characteristics of the development of the disease. This study also establishes HMM to predict the development of the disease according to the lab indexes of the patient in different periods. Finally, this research has put forward to the definition of the key state which is determined by arithmetic in the evolutionary process of the severe hepatitis by the experimental verification and the assessment of HMM.① In order to solve the above research problems, the main contents of this dissertation include: Putting forward to the prediction of the development process of the disease and the study on the early warning of chronic severe hepatitis.② Determining several hidden evolutionary processes of severe hepatitis according to the characteristics of the development of the disease and establishing HMM to predict the development of the disease according to the lab indexes of the patient in different periods; predicting the accuracy rate by the experimental verification; analyzing and accessing the HMM by ROC.③ Putting forward to the definition and the study of the key state in the evolutionary process of severe hepatitis; gaining the key state according to the HMM and arithmetic and explaining the significance of the key state from the medical standpoint through cooperating with the medical researchers in Southwestern Hospital.The experiment proves that the prediction of the development of ACLF based on HMM is more accurate than that in other ways. What’s more, AUC is much better. This study also found that the key state really exists in the evolutionary of severe hepatitis which provides a reference for the diagnosis and treatment of the severe hepatitis. This study possesses a great significance in medical study.