The Cultural Landscape Change, Driving Forces And Scenario Simulation Of Hani Terrace--Based On CLUE-S Model

Yuanyang Hani terrace is a famous cultural landscape heritage in the world, its unique structure of "Forest-village-river-terrace" four-in-one ecosystem has a value of ecological, economic and aesthetic. However as human activities continue to interfere with its landscape pattern, the area of Hani terrace dwindling, the forest resources been destructed, the unique folk culture gradually disappear, the stability of Hani terrace’s ecosystem is weakened, the sustainable development of Hani terrace agricultural cultural landscape is facing a serious threat.The purpose of this paper is to analysis the landscape pattern’s features and variation of Yuanyang Hani terrace, explore the relationship between land use types and various driving factors, based on this to simulation the changes of Hani terrace landscape pattern. Taking Yuanyang County for example, using remote sensing images in2005and2013as data source. Firstly, the division of landscape types is carried on with the software of Erdas Image9.2based on remote sensing images, then use Fragstats3.3software to calculate landscape pattern index, the landscape pattern variation of this region is analyzed by using the calculate result. Secondly, the relationship between the appear ratio of different landscape types and various natural and social factors selected in this paper is explored through the Logistic Regression Model. Thirdly, set two scenarios which is natural development scenario and planning protection scenario, and calculate land demand status in two scenarios. Then, in support of the Dyna-clue model to simulate the dynamic change of landscape pattern of Hani Terrace in2020. At last, based on the results of simulation, the recommendations and management measures to promote the sustainable development of this region are discussed.The main conclusions in this paper are shown as below:(1) In the period from2005to2013great changes had taken place in the pattern of landscape in Yuanyang. The landscape of farmland and forest has been destroyed, the area of this two land use types dwindling, the highest level of increase in this area is construction land, and the smallest surface change is the area of water. In general, the fragmentation degree of landscape is larger in Yuanyang.(2) Use the Logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between land use types and the driving factors and the result shows that the factors such as the distance to main river and the distance to major roads have a positive impact on the appearance of paddy; the factors such as the distance to main river and elevation have a positive impact on the appearance of dry land, but the factor of population density has a negative impact; the factors such as the distance to major roads and elevation have a great impact on the the appearance of orchard; the forest land mainly distribute in remote mountainous area and been influenced by the natural factor of elevation; the factors of elevation and aspect have a positive impact on grass; factors such as the distance to the administrative county center, the distance to the village centers and the population density all have a positive impact on the appearance of construction land. Then use the ROC curve to observe the regression result, and the ROC value is:paddy0.754, dryland0.816, orchard0.635, forest0.743, grassland0.835, construction land0.722, water0.886, they all above0.6. Indicating that the selected driving factors of this paper is effective, between the driving factors and the land use type there is a strong correlation.(3) Based on the land use data of2005. entered the regression equation obtained by Logistic regression model into the CLUE-S model to simulate the land use situation of Yuanyang in2013. Compared the result with the actual land use data of2013, and use Kappa coefficient to test the accuracy of the simulation, the Kappa coefficient of precision inspection is0.8645. Which indicates that the CLUE-S model is applicability on dynamics simulation of land use pattern in Yuanyang Hani terrace.(4) After the precision inspection, set two scenarios of natural development and planning protection, use CLUE-S model to simulated the dynamic changes of landscape pattern in2020. The results show that under the two scenarios the landscape pattern has some common feature as well as some difference. Under both scenarios the area of dry land, construction land and water are increased, but the area of paddy land has a great difference. Under the scenario of natural development, the area of paddy land decreased, in the scenario of planning protection, the area of paddy increased, the ecological environment improved, the urban construction orderly expand, Hani terrace agricultural cultural heritage landscape been protected.(5) Based on the results and the analysis about the simulation for the landscape pattern of Hani terrace, and on the purpose to promote the sustainable development of the agricultural cultural heritage landscape, seven suggestions has been put forward: firstly, strengthen the overall theoretical research of Hani terrace cultural landscape; secondly, make a development plan to the area change of landscape use; thirdly, development the industry of tourism based on cultural landscape heritage; fourth, raise the income level of traditional farming production; fifth, raise the educational level of local residents; sixth, strengthen the propaganda to encourage local residents to participate in the protection work.