On The Influence Of Psychological Factors In Decision-Making

In practical problems,different decision-makers from diverse backgrounds select different refer-ence factors and its reference point,thus their final decisions are not the same. However,the prospect theory involves only a reference factor,and the reference factor’ reference point has only one fixed value. To solve this problem,we conduct applied research on prospect theory. Before graduates seek jobs,we conducted a questionnaire survey to find the influence of their personal background on their employment psychology and employment decision. we expand the reference factor and its reference point of prospect theory by analyzing the survey data and build a model with a plurality of reference factors to supplement the gap in application of prospect theory.First,as for reference factor, the survey data is analyzed by a logistic regression model with first reference factors the graduates considered as dependent variables and their background factors as independent variables.The results show that in addition to speciality,the gender,the family location and per-capita annual income have significant influence on reference factors considered. The prob-ability of reference factors selected in different background factors can be estimated by the model built. Then,as for reference point,by a multi-factor analysis of variance model,we analyze the impact of different background factors on the reference factors’ reference point.The results show that,as for the salary,the male graduates majored in engineering course,from city with higher the annual per capita income have relatively higher salary expectations value.By prospect theory, we predict that college graduates would choose foreign-invested compa-nies if considering only salary; college graduates would choose public institutions if considering only job security;college graduates would choose private enterprises if considering only work development space. However,that result does not conform to the result from the survey data,which shows prospect theory with only one reference factor considered does not apply to real problems,so the model with a plurality of reference factors based on prospect value is built. This model is a combination product of prospect theory and logistic regression,in which for the parameters of value function and weighting function in prospect theory,we conducted a survey on the risk attitude and re-estimate the value of these parameters through survey data. The parameters of logistic regression in the model are esti-mated with the method of maximum likelihood estimation method. In order to test the effectiveness of this model,we calculate the pseudo R2 statistics and rate of correct judgement. The former value is 0.4243,which shows that the model has good fitting effect. Compared with the classical model,rate of correct judgement has been greatly improved. Therefore,our model is more in line with practical application.