| Illegal Fujianese immigration to the United States and other countries is a well-established trend that seems to show no signs of abating. This thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive explanation for its persistence. Because migration decisions are steeped in uncertainty and risk, this study applies a migration-based Prospect Theory to assess potential migrants’risk perceptions and migration propensities. Through a Prospect Theory analysis, we will also uncover the underlying socio-cultural mechanisms at work in the source country that perpetuate this migration trend.A major tenet of Prospect Theory is that people evaluate prospects in relation to a reference point, framing the potential outcome as either a gain or a loss. This thesis argues that the Fujianese demographic likely to engage in an illegal migration project constantly evaluates their wealth in relation to that of the people in their surroundings, so as to form reference points with which to gauge the utility of certain economic choices (ie. migration or staying). The sources of Fujianese illegal immigration are concentrated in comparatively small villages and towns, where a "culture of migration" is well engrained. The process of forming reference points in this environment creates the conditions for the potential migrant to experience relative deprivation, as those around him/her with overseas connections and access to remittances increase their wealth at an exponentially faster rate. In such a scenario, all prospects that cut the potential migrant off from access to this kind of wealth accumulation is perceived as a negative prospect, or a loss. According to Prospect Theory, losses have a higher psychological impact than same-sized gains, and people will exhibit risk-seeking behavior in order to mitigate losses. This implies that perceived negative influences in the home country will have a larger impact on a person’s migration propensity than positive influences in the target country. |
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