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Research On Scenario Modeling And Inference For Unconventional Emergency

Posted on:2016-04-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2296330461478768Subject:Information management and e-government
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
For humans, the emergency follow the social development. As the rapid development of social economy, the uncertain or unstable factors which affect the national security and social order are clearly on the rise, and the frequency of unconventional emergency are increasing, Which not only threaten the life and property of people, but also evaluate the government performance. The emergency management pattern, "Scenario-response" has been considered to the most efficient pattern for unconventional emergency. The scenario is a complex system related to a variety of elements belonging to natural, social, psychological and so on. As a consequence, how to construct a cross-discipline scenario inference method to provide some references for dealing with unconventional emergency are one of the important research of the scenario-response.To solve the above problem, this paper proposed a scenario representation method based on knowledge-unit model, and then discussed the inference method by combining system science with knowledge management. In summarize, the paper contains three parts. Firstly, the paper discussed the concept, factors and evolution of unconventional emergency, and then defined the related concept of research. Secondly, first of all, the paper introduced the knowledge-unit model; and then proposed the scenario model based on the knowledge-unit combining the characteristic of scenario factor with knowledge-unit, which could have a more micro-analyze to the structure of scenario and provide a knowledge support for inference model, at the last, from the view of cognitive science, the paper proposed the hierarchy model of cognitive. Thirdly, following the previous study, this paper built the inference frame on the basis of the evolutional rule of the emergency, then introduced a common inference model being suitable for unconventional emergency, in the end, in view of the uncertainty, a fuzzy inference method is introduced. This method constructed the fuzzy rules on the basis of the interaction among knowledge-units, then matched the uncertainty information with fuzzy rules, then estimated the results and probability as the decision-making foundation for manager. Finally, applying the scenario inference method to the Zhouqu debris flow event, the scientificity and practicability of method was testified.This paper has some exploration meaning to the study on scenario-response. Especially the research of inference method under uncertainty, which have important application value and practical significance for helping the government deal with the problem quickly and reduce the loss of human social in the face of specific emergency.
Keywords/Search Tags:Unconventional emergency, knowledge unit, scenario representation, fuzzy inference
PDF Full Text Request
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