Dy On The Method Of Selecting And Dynamic Adjusting Alternatives In Multi-stage Emergency Decision

In recent years, with the development of technology and the change of environment, various unexcepted incidents are frequently happening, and these unexcepted incidents cause large damage and loss to our society and environment. Although we can’t precisely foreknow the occurrence and development of unexcepted incidents at the moment, we can reduce the degree of their damage by positive emergency management and achive the purpose of effectively dealing with unexcepted incidents. Emergency decision plays an important role in the process of emergency management, and whether the emergency decision is correct or not will directly affects the quality and effectiveness of emergency management. Due to the uncertainty of unexcepted incidents, the problems solved by emergency decision are usually in disorder and mutation. Decision makers need draft and choose corresponding emergency alternatives according to the different changement stages of unexpected incidents, and the alternatives should be adjusted with the changing emergency situation.On the basis of a comprehensive review of the research status and development of emergency decision theories and methods, this thesis made thorough reaearch on the problems about selecting and dynamic adusting alternatives in multi-stage emergency decision. The purpose and significance of the research are as follows:in the theory and method research aspect, on the one hand, proposes a method for selecting alternative chain which consiers the sub-alternative compatibility between two adjacent stages and intends to enrich and improve the research on multi-stage emergency decision methods, on the other hand, propses a method for dynamic adjusting emergency alternatives base on risk decision and intend to enrich the research on the alternative adjusting theory and methods; in the pratical research aspect, chooses the selecting emergency decision alternativs in a nucler accident and adjusting alternatives in a city fire accident as the examples to illustrate the scientificaty and validity of the proposed methods.This thesis mainly finishes the following works: (1) With respect to the multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problems and regard to the the sub-alternative compatibility between two adjacent stages, a method for selecting the alternative chain is proposed. In this method, the concept of alternative chain is given and multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problem is described. The compatibility relationship matrices are constructed to reflect the sub-alternative compatibility between two adjacent stages. An optimization model is developed to solve the alternative chain selection problem on the basis of compatibility relationship matrices and sub-alternative evaluation values. And the optimal alternative chain can be determined by solving the constructed model.(2) With respect to the problem of alternatives adjusting in emergency decision, a risk decision method is proposed. According to the characteristics of scenarios evolution in emergency event, the whole procedure of dynamic adjusting is firstly described, and the correlation between different alternatives is identified. Then, the generation of adjusting alternatives is described. Further, some factors are also considered in this paper, such as the performance of alternatives, the loss during the procedure, the switching costs between the emergency alternatives and so on, and the dynamic adjustment method is given.(3) The two cases of selecting emergency decision alternativs in a nucler accident and adjusting alternatives in a city fire accident indicate and verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods.Finally, the dissertation draws a conclusion, and summarizes the research fruits. On the basis of the above, some suggestions on future research are put forward. The study on the methods of selecting and dynamic adusting alternatives in multi-stage emergency decision in this thesis not only enrich the research results about the emergency decision methods, but also provided the thought and guidance for the emergency decision problems in the real practices.