Domino Theory Perspective Of Recurring Insurgencies In Tajikistan:the External Dimension

Peace and conflict together characterize the International system as well as the mainstreamIR discourse. Conflict, consisting of one or other forms of violence, is considered as a morepermanent feature of IR than cooperation. Violence, of whichever kind, is never an independentvariable which means that there always is a cause making people resort to its use. Insurgency,being one of the most widely used forms of violence is the subject matter of this study. Peoplerise in insurgency when they are not satisfied with the existing order in a state and wish to resistor replace it. Insurgencies, though being dominantly internal in origin, i.e. erupting from withinthe state, can at times have external dimensions involved also.External factors might at times play a definitive role in determining the nature, character,time span as well as the over-all fate of the insurgent movements. Studying the effect thatexternal elements might be capable of having on an internally originated insurgency is the focusof this research. Insurgent threats, being mostly internal in origin, come under the domesticjurisdiction of a state force or government. Governments, believed to be internally sovereignhave all the resources at their disposal which might be needed to control the insurgency.Additionally, they are entitled to a legitimate right to use any required means when it comesto ensuring order, peace and stability at domestic level. So, the wide-scale phenomenon ofinsurgency is primarily an internal problem having internal solution, failure to reach whichbrings other dimensions of the issue under consideration. This work takes the insurgency inTajikistan as a test case to understand the issue more clearly. After seeing extreme violenceduring a five year long civil war, Tajikistan experienced a decade of relative stability.The stable phase, however, was soon interrupted when violence erupted again in the form ofRasht-Tavildara Insurgency in2009. However, with the use of its superior capabilities and forces,government easily succeeded in overcoming this localized conflict. Unfortunately, the successachieved was temporary and superficial at best as what began in2009became a cycle of successive insurgencies in2010and2012. The pointunder consideration is the fact that government failed in controlling this repeated outbreak evenafter efficiently employing all the possible means available for dealing with it.While trying to explain this puzzle, we come across the role which external factors play inimparting a recurring nature to the conflict. After pointing out the involvement of externalfactors in the recurring outbreak of insurgency in Tajikistan, the main question researched herepertains to which factors exactly have played their role in rendering the government responsestrategies ineffective in the long term. Two main external factors that have been identified whichinclude one, the continuous instability and chaos in Afghanistan, and second, the role played bythe Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in transporting these elements across borders.After establishing the fact that the above-mentioned external elements have played their partin government’s failure to control the situation, Domino effect theory has been employed toanswer what has made these factors to play an influential role in this case. The theory helps us tounderstand how the falling of a selected area or geographic region to a particular threat makesthe other associated regions equally prone and vulnerable to that threat. So, the theoreticalunderpinnings of Domino Theory have been used to explain the external dimensions ofInsurgency in Tajikistan.Following the introductory part, the rest of thesis has been divided into three chapters. Thesecond Chapter following this introduction established the theoretical base for the research. Thechapter starts with introducing the phenomena of Insurgency, its definition, causes and itsimpacts on interstate relations. It then introduces the Domino effect theory and establishes itslink with Insurgency, followed by an explanation of how a domino effect of insurgency canimpact the inter-state relations.Chapter three mainly deals with the explanation of the case study. Starting with the historyof post-independence instability in Tajikistan, it gives a detailed account of the three successiveinsurgencies, the reasons and factors involved, government responses and ultimate outcomereached. The last part analyzes possible factors leading to government failure and repetition ofinsurgencies; external factors have been identified as the main cause in this section. Last Chapterfurther elaborates the argument with the help of Domino theory showing how instability inAfghanistan and IMU had a domino effect that complicated the situation in Tajikistan. Each of the two factors and their impact on Insurgency has been discussed separately indifferent sections. A general conclusion of this whole research follows in the end. Thisqualitative-analytical research work has referred to historical facts for showing how instability inAfghanistan and IMU’s close links to it have created a domino effect of instability, insurgencyand disorder across the region in general and in Tajikistan in particular. A clear cause-effectlinkage has been established showing that domino effect of instability is the cause which leads tothe effect under study, i.e. the failure of government to have a thorough and effective control ofthe situation.The main reason for government’s failure here is not its lack of capacity or ability, but thefact that external factors lying beyond government’s sovereign control and involved here whichmake the situation complicated. No matter what degree of force government uses to control theinternal situation, the external factors, which require a regional rather than a national solutionkeep playing their part, thus making the Insurgency and instability recurrent and beyond state’sefficient control.