Research On Unconventional Emergency-oriented Initial Scenario Of Artificial Society

The outbreak of SARS in 2003 has drawn the domestic scholars’ attention towards unconventional emergency. Unconventional emergency response decision-making and disposal has become a major challenge for the international community. The traditional "prediction-response" model can not adequately deal with unconventional emergencies in real time. "Scenario-response" model has become widely recognized by scholars emergency field pattern. KD-ACP platform which is developed by NUDT aims to deal with unconventional emergency problems by developing artificial society. There is still not social scene study for artificial and computational experiments in China. In this paper, artificial social initial scenarios were studied with "emergency management based on parallel unconventional emergencies dynamic simulation and computational experiments sublimation Platform" project requirements for traction, Specific studies are as follows:( 1) In-depth study of theory related to artificial societies scenario. Learn about scenario conception in field relevant to artificial society, compare the soft systems approach, artificial society theory, emergency management theory and decision-making theory. State their impact and meaning to the study of artificial society by comparison and analysis.( 2)Proposing framework of artificial social’s initial scenario. At first, we compare the conception in some field. Then we give a clear definition of the initial artificial social scene. We studied the characteristics of artificial societies of the initial scenario and classify the conception of scenario on the basis of this definition; finally, we designed description framework of artificial societies initial scenario.( 3) Design and Implementation of Artificial Societies initial scenario tools. According to the design of the initial scenario’s description framework, we design and implement the KD-ACP initial scenario generation and administration tool which is a part of KD-ACP platform.( 4) With the background of launching calculating experiment based on “Artificial-Beijing” and the date from real world, we design the instance “2009 Beijing A stream event scenario” and implement it with initial scenario generation tool. Last, we implement a primary date base of” Artificial-population” which including environment and 19 million population based on this instance.In this paper, the study of this paper support for building an artificial society and help to improve the accuracy and completeness of artificial social construction.