Indicator System Research Of Public Policy Social Stability Risk Assessment Based On Policy Process

During the period of social transition in China, there is full of opportunities and mixed with various social risks. In recent years,mass incidents happen frequently,making the social stability risk issues become the focus of the society. The ultimate goal of public policy which is an authoritative way to distribute the social value, is to implement the stability of power and society by fair distribution.A policy,however, is very difficult to fully achieve the expected effect,and it always leads to the game between different interest groups or causes social risks.The risk assessment of public policy is the key component of the social risk assessment, which is a basic guarantee and an important way to promote the nation and society’s harmonious development.But in terms of the current situation of academic research, the amount of research in this field is relatively less, and there exists following defects:be lack of unified theoretical framework, the logical relationship between indicators is not very clear, the building of indicator system is not scientific enough,etc.Thus leaves the practice of risk assessment of public policy into a dilemma.In this paper,we research the social stability risks of public policy to tease out the risk factors and finally to construct the indicator system of risk assessment.The main contents and thoughts of this research are as follows:(1)Discuss possible risk points of every policy stage under the respective of the policy process theory,trying to bring the "policy phases" thinking into the whole process of risk analysis;(2)Based on the logical framework of the social conflict theory,we summarize the mechanism of public policy social stability risks’ occurrence and evolvement.Then conclude four major elements during the risks occurrence,namely the risk main body,interest conflicts,impeded interest expression channels, risk events.And analyze the interactions of the government behaviors, psychological activities of the risk main body, social media and public opinion during the process of risk events evolution;(3) Based on the risk analysis in different policy stages and the study of the risk mechanism, combining the governance theory of social ecosystem, tease out the risk factors from two dimensions,one is the internal risk of policy system which mainly exists in the generalized stages of policy making and policy execution,another is the external environment risk that contain natural and social environment factors;(4)Theoretically construct the indicator system of risk assessment using the Delphi method and the Clustering analysis method,then introduce the actual cases,applying the risk analysis process and the thoughts of constructing the indicator system which are the main research results of this paper into practice to verify their feasibility.