The Influence Of The Demographic Dividend To Economic Growth

According to the 2010 census data, since the reform and opening up, Tianjin’s actual GDP average growth rate per annul was 13.01%, while the total dependency ratio decreased by 19.94%. At the same time, the popularization of higher education rate increased by 10 times. The illiteracy rate dropped from 18.39% in 1982 to 2.1%. With the continuous development of economy in recent years, the establishment of "Binhai New district" and the free trade area made Tianjin’s job market absorb a large number of rural labor force. This thesis fully considered the characteristics of the regional population transformation, drawing lessons from demographic transition theory and the results of traditional demographic dividend. In addition, this paper integrated population quality, population structure of employment and other factors into the definition of traditional demographic dividend, expanding the Cobb-Douglas production function, and exploring the new "demographic dividend" acted in Tianjin’s economy growth by using empirical method. Besides, this thesis estimated the "demographic dividend" duration from regional development tendency aspect.This paper mainly focused on the following aspects. Firstly, this paper bring social dependency ratio, human capital and dual working mode model into research category, extending the traditional definition of the demographic dividend. Secondly, this paper forecast the tendency of population dependency ratio of Tianjin from 2015 to 2030 by using ARIMA model, and predict the prospective population structure combining with the actual situation of the international standard. Thirdly, according to research results of the impact factor for Chinese economic growth and Tianjin’s economic growth mode, this thesis calculate the economic value of "demographic dividend" on Tianjin’s development. Fourthly, this thesis was based on the research results and the characteristics of regional development, raising the policy suggestion on Tianjin’s population sustainable development strategy.The author combined Tianjin’s present population age structure development tendency and the contribution rate of population factor, drawing conclusion as below. Although the contribution of new "demographic dividend" on Tianjin’s economic development reached to 25.74%, the advantage of the traditional population size was still account for a large proportion(11.45%). The advantage of human capital and the factors of urban-rural employment structure were still under excavated. Additionally, the prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the Tianjin’s "demographic dividend" window period started since the beginning of this century. The window period was influenced by population aging cisis, and it would be end on 2021. The overall tendency chart presented an inverted U type. This conclusion was at least 10 years ahead of domestic expected results and the potential economic losses was serious. Therefore, at the end of this paper, the author explored the advantage of demographic dividend carefully from policy aspect. The research were focused on adjust the family planning policy,improve the population quality,allocate labor resources reasonably,build a multi-channel employment mode,establish a wholesome pension system and so on. Finally, the author discussed the inadequacies of this study, and expected further research in the future.