Aging Population And China Capital Market Development

After 2000, China has become an aging population society, due to the special circumstances of China’s population, the aging trend is more serious. With the population aging, the age structure of the capital market participants change, which effect the capital market pricing, investment orientation, transaction structure. Thus population aging research for the development of capital markets is important and necessary.This paper from theoretical and empirical two aspects studies population aging on the impact of the capital market. In theory, this paper through the introduction of population aging model, modified OLG model, numerical simulation of the model of equity capital markets are under the trend of population aging, the price of bond yields and the price of labor dynamic path, found under the background of population aging, the stock price will be decreased and the price of labor will be significantly increased, the impact of the aging population of the capital market pricing. In the transaction structure, with the changing of population structure, the number of holders of shares will obviously decrease for bond preference will rise.For the demonstration,2004-2013 China 30 provinces as the research sample, verify the aging of the population will affect the development of the capital market. The empirical results show that the aging population of the market capitalization rate (total stock market value and GDP ratio) has a negative impact. Mainly because of the aging population, asset prices and stock investment preference decline and bonds risk-free investment rise. At the same time, the deepening of aging will bring the capital market product innovation. Second empirical study is the VAR model about the aging of population and capital market transaction structure. Using data samples from 1992 to 2014, the explanation is that population aging for bond and stock holding ratio showed a positive correlation. The deepening of the aging of the population more serious, more holdings of risk-free assets such as bonds.x...