The Economic Symptom Research In America’s Previous Economic Crises During1919-2008

Both domestic and foreign scholars have done many researches intoAmerica’s previous economic crises to analysis the causes and precautions invarious aspects. However, mostly are just theoretic explanations and illustrations,and have little practical benefit to predict the economic crisis. This thesis is tryingto create some quantitative index to research the economic crisis, so that peoplecan predict the economic crisis more precisely.This thesis selects several economic crises which have far-reaching impacton America’s economy during1919-2008to find out the differentiae andcommonness of each economic crisis, and the critical point or the critical intervalbetween the normal economic situation and the economic crisis approaching bycreating economic index using quantitative analysis and comparative analysis todemonstrate the same economic symptom of each economic crisis.When economic crisis was approaching, the Money Supply M2was foundapparently higher than normal, so does the Marshall K value which is even higherthen the price rise, which means excessive monetory supply in economy andfinally cause excess liquidity. Furthermore, the low loan interest rate and highcommercial bank loads would lead high demand for investment in real economy.Simultaneously, speculation would run wild in real estate, which would causebubble in stock market.