Research On Simulation Analysis And Stochastic Comparison For Project Investment Decision

Project investment decision as an important part of enterprise management, is correct or not,that decides whether the enterprise can win in the increasingly fierce competition. With thedeepening of Interest rate marketization, simulation analysis at stochastic rate will replacethe simulation analysis at fixed rate to become an inevitable development trend of simulationanalysis.In this paper, it tries to use Vasicek Model to produce each period discount rate to replacefixed discount rate, and basis on it to simulate Net Present, finally get the distributionfunction map. Combining stochastic dominance criteria to sort on multiple projects, itprovides a method of decision-making for enterprise risk decision.The article is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, a fundamental part ofthe article, it mainly state the research background, research significance, research status, themain contents and innovation of the paper. The second part is theoretical overview section,including a single project investment decision-making methods and multi-project investmentdecisions Comparative Law. The third part as the body part, is the simulation analysis, whichexamples showing the same project at a fixed and stochastic interest of simulation analysisand analyze the differences and similarities of distribution function map. The fourth part isstochastic comparison project, a continuation of the third part, in which two differentprojects respectively do simulation analysis at a fixed and stochastic interest, and sort themby random criteria, then analyzed similarities and differences of results. The last part is theconclusion part of the article, which contents the method and results in project decisionprocess, and summary the advantages, disadvantages and innovation of this paper.