Research On Credit Riskassessment For Small And The Medium-sized Enterprises Of Commercial Banks

With the development of economic and the financial market open increasingly, the numberof the commercial banks has increased,at the same time,the competition of the commercialbanks has became more and more fiercer.The commercial banks’ primary issue is how toefficiently control the credit risk and to expand business scope.In the2011, The “Private lendingcrisis” had happened in the city of Wenzhou and which had pushed the financing difficultproblem of the small and the medium-sized enterprise to the forefront again.Countries also paymore attention to the problem that why the commercial banks can not lend enough money to thesmall and medium-sized enterprises.Because of the credit risk of the small and medium-sizedenterprise’s is higher than the large-scale enterprises,the commercial banks are not to make anaccurate prediction about the credit risk in time,so they should establish a scientific credit riskassessment mode from the internal as soon as possible to predict the small and medium-sizedenterprise’s credit risk.Only in this way, the commercial banks not only to reduce the credit risk,but also to support the small and medium-sized enterprise’s financing problem. Both of the twosides can achieve in a win-win..This article first analyzes the research results of scholars both at home and abroad,summarizes the current credit risk assessment methods and the credit risk management relatedtheories, selected the suitable credit risk assessment method for small and medium-sizedenterprise.Then the paper has analyzed the credit risk assessment current situation about thecommercial banks to the small and medium-sized enterprise and point out that the loan needs ofthe small and medium-sized enterprise are not being met, commercial banks have some creditrisk and the credit risk assessment of the commercial banks to the small and medium-sizedenterprises still exist certain problems. Then according to the data of2011and2012about the90 mses credit default and normal samples from a joint-stock commercial bank, build the creditrisk assessment evaluation index system to the commercial banks small and medium-sizedenterprise,and divided the samples into two groups:the modeling samples and the testingsamples,firstly make the independent samples T test to the financial indicators of all the samplesand weed out the financial indicators which have no significant difference.Then through theprincipal component analysis (pca) to screen the rest of the financial indicators of the modelsamples and retained five principal components.Meanwhile, quantify the non-financial indicatorsby the expert scoring method. This paper establishes the small and medium-sized enterprisecredit risk assessment model according to the logit regression method by the retain financial andnon-financial indicators. This paper makes a statistical test after the regression analysis andexplain the coefficient of the model.Then,this paper makes a test for the30enterprises of thetesting samples and draw that the predict probability of default of the model is as high as90%.Finally, this paper puts forward some related suggestions in order to strengthen the credit riskevaluation of the commercial banks to small and medium-sized enterprises.