The Research On The Influence Of Double Surplus In International Balance Of Payments On Structural Inflation

Structural inflation is a theory what explains the cause of inflation from structuralfactors, Hicks and other economist had different definition of it. But their thought areconsistent. In this paper, author based on their definition of structural inflation toredefine that structural inflation is the labor productivity and other factors differencebetween the two economic sectors initiate the total or part of the supply and demandimbalance then caused inflation. This paper start from the factors of causing structuralinflation, choice special economic phenomenon "double surplus" of our country as theresearch key, analysis the effects of "double surplus" on structural inflation.China’s double surplus pattern can be divided into four stages: The first phase,1994-1996. Under the guide of favorable exchange rate policies, the internationaltrade and foreign investment both developed swiftly. During this phase, doublesurplus pattern has taken initial shape. The second phase,1997-2001. The doublesurplus pattern affected by the financial crisis heavily. At this stage China needed todevelop the international trade and foreign investment at the same time. So, Chinatried to reverse the negative effects of the crisis. The third phase,2002-2011. Afterjoining the world trade organization (WTO), China continued to maintain the doublesurplus pattern. But, as the change of internal and external economic structure, theinner structure of double surplus pattern had changed. Capital and financial accountsurpassed current account balance and became the main part of the balance ofpayments. At the end of this phase, the negative impact of double surplus pattern onthe economy appeared gradually. Scholars began to explore solutions. The fourthphase: since2012. In2012, double surplus pattern had been shocked again, but thistime it is due to China’s foreign investment increased.This paper makes the Inner link as the research key.After described the presentsituation of double surplus and structural factors in domestic inflatio n, author Basedon the transmission mechanism to analyze the relationship. The results show thatforeign trade surplus is mainly through the price mechanism, supply and demandstructure transfer way, foreign capital surplus mainly through different laborproductivity to cause structural inflation.To test the rationality of theoretical analysis,this paper based on the of the theory of mechanism, related data between1982-2012with two department economic analysis combined with the regression analysis and the VAR model impulse response function respectively study the influence of foreigntrade surplus and foreign capital surplus on structural inflation.