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The Research On The Periodically Fluctuations Of Inventory Investment In China

Posted on:2015-03-30Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q QinFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330431450613Subject:Western economics
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It plays a very important role of the fluctuations of the inventory investment onthe economic cycle.Inventory investment and its periodic fluctuations varies indifferent countries and different stages of a country. China, the largest developingcountry, is now in an rapid economic growth and industrial restructuring stage, theeconomic rule and conclusions for the developed market economies may not apply toChina. Therefore, the research on the inventory investment cycle and its empiricalfluctuations of the Chinese economic has important value to help reveal the true statusof Chinese investment in inventory and its characteristics and economic impact.This dissertation studies the theory of cyclical fluctuations of the Chineseinventory investment mechanisms to comprehensively reveal the status andcharacteristics of Chinese stock investment cycle fluctuations in themacroscopic,mid-gradational and microcosmic perspective. It also use vector autoregression (VAR), the impulse response function (IRF) and dynamic conditions of therelationship (DCC) to model the causes of China empirical analysis of cyclicalfluctuations in inventory investment, performance and results. The results show thatthe presence of our inventory investment fluctuate regularity has experienced10complete inventory investment cycles since1978, each cycle wavelengths are locatedbetween2to4years, a long period of3.4years. Cyclical fluctuations in ourinventory investment is very intense, the average volatility is67.86%, a standarddeviation of34.85%. Fluctuations in inventory investment of significant positiveresponse to fluctuations in aggregate demand, our inventory investment demand shocktriggered in the same direction even more dramatic changes. Sector studies showdifferent behavior in different sectors of inventories, the role of cyclical fluctuationsin inventory investment in the national economy is also different. Iron and steel,chemicals, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry in our countryto play a significant role in the economy, wholesale and retail trade services ofChina’s economy is to determine the benchmark, inventory investment in these foursectors of China’s total investment in inventories accounted for76.3%in ourinventory cycle plays an important role.The main innovation of this dissertation are as follow: firstly, systematic analysisof the formation mechanism and the mechanism of Chinese investment in inventory cyclical fluctuations, studied the demand shock, in-depth inventory investmentrelationship and the interaction mechanism between volatility and economicfluctuations. Secondly, from the macroscopic,mid-gradational and microcosmicperspective reveals a more comprehensive Chinese economy, key industries andmanufacturing companies, as well as raw materials and finished goods inventoryinvestment status and characteristics of cyclical fluctuations. Finally, not onlyanalyzes the demand shock, the first-order inventory investment relationship betweenvolatility and economic fluctuations, but also innovative study of the Chinese stockinvestment cycle fluctuations in the conditional variance and dynamic characteristicssuch as persistence, and with the demand shock, the economic cycle second-ordereffects of fluctuations in the relationship between volatility and dynamic conditionsconductive relationship between volatility.
Keywords/Search Tags:Inventory investment, economic cycle, the dynamic relationship model
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