Empirical Study Of Relationship Between Traditional Retail Industry In China And Online Shopping

With the continuous development of Internet technology, online shopping has been deep into every aspect of social life and has influence on every industry. The competition between traditionals retails is fierce,the impact of online shopping on traditional retail is strengthening.Based on such background, this research analyzes systematically the characteristics, development mode and the existing problems from the present situation of development about the traditional retail industry and the online shopping.On the basis of qualitative analysis the relationship between traditional retail and online shopping, it use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyse quantitatively online shopping customers behavior,and use VAR model to analyse quantitatively traditional retail impact and influence from online shopping.According to the results,we put forward suggestions and countermeasures on the development of traditional retailing and online shopping, at the same time, point out it has become the trend of future development that traditional retail industry should be integrated with the network shopping.First of all,based on the current situation of traditional retailing and online shopping, this paper uses the qualitative analysis, system analysis, comparison and induction to analyse the advantages and disadvantages and the shock, it shows that we should combine the tradition way with the new one.Secondly, this paper uses quantitative analysis method to analyse the data in models: Apply the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyse and evaluate factors affecting China’s online shopping,choose three first-level indicators and13secondary indicators, use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights.Comparison in three primary indexes, experts believe that the network information security is most important, proportion is as high as76.87%, but online retailer characteristics are more important than the consumer characteristics;In13secondary indicators, we have3significant aspects that online consumers care,they are the network information security, the usefulness of online shopping and the reliability of the site.When we analyse the results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, it is concluded that the evaluation results for the influence factor of China’s online shopping "consumer features" evaluation indicators is "good", belongs to the class E2, and the evaluation results of network information security value standard and "online retailer characteristics" indicators of the for the "general", belongs to the class E3.And the overall comprehensive evaluation for the "general" belongs to the class E3.Based on VAR model, we use co-integration analysis, granger causality analysis and VEC model method (based on the quarterly data from2005to2013) to analyse quantitatively the long-term and short-term relationship between online and traditional retail industry in China.Research results show that the traditional retail sales and online sales exist positive co-integration relationship for a long time, the elasticity is0.20, per capita disposable income and online sales are a one-way granger cause of traditional retail sales.However, in the short term, it has a negative relationship between traditional retail sales and online transaction sales.Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis show that the most influence on the traditional retails and online shopping come from the per capita disposable income, while the impact of traditional retailing on the online shopping is greater than the impact of online shopping on traditional retail.Finally, on the basis of qualitative analysis and the positive analysis, the paper concludes that we should develop a retail mode that combine traditional retail industry with network shopping, at the same time,it presents the related suggestions.