A Study On Affecting Factors And Market Reactions To The Semi-mandatory And Mandatory-to-be Cash Dividend Policy

For a long time, there has been a large number of listed companies which alwaysdo not pay cash dividends in China’s capital market, the shareholders pay withoutreturns, showing that securities market of China is not standardized, it will not onlyaffects the enthusiasm of investors, but also lead to capital markets can’t growsustained and healthy over time. Based on this, the China securities regulatorycommission issued several policy to ask listed companies pay cash dividends，whichin order to promote stingy companies pay cash dividends consciously, whileprotecting shareholders’ interests and maintain capital markets develop sustainablyand healthy development.The paper studied on such a background and combined with the theoreticalanalysis and empirical test. First of all, expounded the theoretical and practicalsignificance, defined the " Semi-mandatory dividend policy "," quasi-mandatorydividend policy " and "’ miser ’listed companies", reviewed and summarized theformer literatures of the market effect of Semi-mandatory dividend policy, zerodividend policy and influence factors of cash dividend, then analyzed signaling theoryand agency theory of the dividend; second, it came to empirical part, this article setthe time bounded contact with to the China securities regulatory commission therecently two policies (" decision "and" notice ") issued by CSRC, selected the "miserlisted companies" which don’t pay cash dividend three consecutive years fromShanghai A-share as the research sample, and chose normal cash dividend companiesas the paired samples，with event study method and Logistic regression model,analyzed the capital market reactions to the policies in order to explore policypromulgated effect and further explore the reason of dividend policy of miser listedcompanies, it is found that: investors showed little reaction to policies issued, the"decision" and "notice" can’t offer too much to force the miser listed company paycash divided; the company which is state-owned controlled, own strong ability ofgrowth more likely to become a "miser", and the company which own the highownership concentration, the strong ability of profit, strong ability in cash tend to paycash dividend, get a smaller probability to become a "miser"; at last, put forwardcorresponding Suggestions to he government, listed companies and investors,perfecting the dividend policy and theoretical significance of the government policyguidance, as well as solve the tough specification of government，the difficulty of "miser" pay cash divided and the trouble of investor’s less bonus.