Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of U.S.Dollar Exchange Rate And China Share Market On Gold Price

Gold price has fluctuated sharply since the beginning of21th century.It went up from about270dollars per ounce in2000to1920dollars per ounce in2011,however a slump in2013made the price fall to1180dollars per ounce,which was the the largest decline in the latest32years. Violent fluctuations not only caused many investors severe losses but also aggravated the instability of finance market further.In this situation.what will the future trend be becomes the research hotspots of finance investors and academic researchers once again.This article discusses gold price from two aspect:first,the influential factors of gold price;second,the future trend of gold price.First,the influential factors of gold price are various and in different period have different influence degrees.Therefore,this article divides them into three types:long-term influential factors,medium-term influence factors and short-term influence factors.In the long term,gold price is determined by the amount of gold sorage;in the medium term,gold price is influenced by the relationship between supply and demand;in short term,there are many factors influencing the price,include dollar exchange rate,oil price,stock market,inter national sit-uation and so on.This paper gives the theoretical analysis on the relationships between gold price and those influence factors.Meanwhile,it uses Co-integration test to analyze the long-run equilibrium relationships among gold price,dollar exchange rate and China stock market,and gets the conclusion:there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between gold price and dollar exchange rate,but it doesn’t exist between gold price and China stock market. Secondly,on the basis of gold price influence factors.this article makes a forecast about the price of gold in the next six months,using time series data between1986-2014years.In previous researches on ARMA time series models,they usually con-sider the time series itself which will ignore the future changes of influence factors.Therefore,the result is often not ideal.Based on the conventional AR-MA model,this article considers the influence of dollar exchange rate and build a combined time series model to forecast future gold price.The result shows that the gold price will rise in the short term.At last,this article gives some advice on investors and government.