The Study Of The Spillover Effects Of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy From Japan On China

In2008the international financial crisis, developed economies such as Japan, EU, America to cope with the global financial crisis, get rid of the domestic economic downturn, generally adopted a quantitative easing of policies to stimulate the economy, in order to alleviate the domestic economic recession and deflation. American is gradually withdrawn from the quantitative easing monetary policy, while Japan has been stressed that "in the stability of inflation before the2%goals will continue to pursue the policy of quantitative easing". Japan is the first country quantitative easing monetary policy; its experience is worth reference. At the same time, the trade links of Japan and China is so close, the quantitative easing monetary policy to our country inevitably affects. Channel direction, the spillover effects and spillover effect is worthy of our in-depth study. The world’s major economies facing quantitative frequent loose monetary policy operation as well as the global economic crisis, China how to actively respond and to eliminate the negative spillover effect is a problem to be solved.This paper first introduced the quantitative easing monetary policy implications, analyzed the transmission channels of monetary policy spillover effect. Describes in detail the practice foundation of Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy, from the theoretical analysis of the quantitative easing in Japan on the spillover effects of China’s economy caused by the use of an econometric model, and focuses on the quantitative easing monetary policy impact on China’s real economy direction, degree, effect of time were analyzed, and the analysis results are summarized, in order to put forward the appropriate policy recommendations.Empirical analysis of spillover effect of this emphasis on Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy on China’s economy, with the help of VAR model, constructed a vector which contains six variables regression model. This paper selects the variables of our gross domestic product, the total volume of import and export, commodity price index, interbank interest rate and foreign exchange reserve five economic variables as Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy implementation. We go through the stationary test, co integration relationship of time in VAR model of the test sequence, and the pulse response function model analysis. Draws the following conclusion:The spillover effect of Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy of our country exists, to the GDP of our country, the total import and export volume TEV, interbank interest rates; foreign exchange reserves affect the amount of SHIBOR FER for alternating positive and negative direction. Therefore, Japan’s quantitative easing will have adverse effects on the stable growth of China’s GDP, the total volume of import and export; foreign exchange reserve of China interest rate, stability can have adverse effects. Effect of direction of Japanese quantitative easing monetary policy of our country commodity price index CCPI is roughly the negative, will cause China’s commodity prices. Therefore, Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy, through the trade output channel, interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, the international bulk commodity price channel spillover effect on China, have an adverse impact on China’s economy stable, healthy growth.