Analysis Of Dynamic Decision Optimization Model Of Wind Power Supplier Based On Multi-risk

With the continuous development of renewable energy and the gradual and furtherstudying of wind power generation technology, large-scale wind turbines participate theoperation of power system will be one of the most important form of the development ofpower grid. Wind power parallelling in the grid not only can increase the openness of powermarket, but also can improve the economic returns and contribute to society andenvironmental benefit of grid. Wind turbine output has the characteristics of randomness andintermittency due to the unreliable wind velocity. In complicated power market environment,the effective trading strategy can manage grid-connceted economic risk and promote the rapiddevelopment of wind power technique, and simultaneously increase the proportion of cleanenergy which consistent with the strategic policy of energy-saving and emission-reductionand sustainable development.Based on the domestic and overseas research production, this paper establish the modelof bidding strategy for grid-connected wind power supplier from two aspects. One on hand,we make an analysis of the transaction process between wind power supplier and differentpower markets, and the optimal bidding strategy by considering multi-risk in multi-market ofwind power supplier on the basis of risk transfer among markets. On the other hand, we makean analysis of the transaction interaction between wind power and conventional suppliers, andthe multi-period dynamic decision optimization model based on risks by considering decisioninfluence of each suppliers on the basis of risk transfer effect on timing axis.Basing on the RT(real time)-DA(day ahead) market background, we evaluate multi-riskin multi-market of wind power supplier by using the conditional value at risk (CVaR) as therisk measurement indicator and kernel density estimation method (KDE) on the outputforecast, and thus establish the model of bidding strategy optimization model forgrid-connected wind power supplier to maximize revenue. This model reflects not only thecomprehensive influence on the profits and the strategy of wind power generation companybased on multistage risk, but also on individual risk fluctuation. The calculation results showthe effectiveness and the validity of the proposed model, indicating that this model has somereferenced values for wind power generation company in purchasing strategy optimizationand risk evaluation of different time, and can improve the predictive and management abilityof wind power supplier.By analyzing the RT-market mechanism which involved the wind power developmentinto advantages on account of the randomization of output and using bidding price andbidding power of wind power supplier as optimum varieties, we establish the multi-period dynamic decision optimization model based on multi-risk. This model takes intoconsideration of the dynamic response of subsequent bidding environment caused by thedecision of wind power supplier with different time. This model adjustes biddingdecision-making to maximize the total profit on the whole period. The calculation results andcomparison with static decision optimization model make a best illustration on the validityand practicability of the proposed model.The reform for the marketization of power market and the continuous development ofnew energy will be diversified the risk study of grid-connected wind power supplier. Moreand more problems will appear in the process of practicing. How to actually and practicallymanage the transaction risk of grid-connected wind power supplier, that need to moreresearch.