| Sugar is an important necessity of important crops, both residents of everyday life, is also an importantraw material in beverage, food, pharmaceutical and other industrial economies indispensable. Therefore,the stable development of the sugar market, both to the people livelihood, but also directly affect thehealthy operation of the national economy related industries. However, since sugar " perennial " caused bythe production of the special nature of supply and demand imbalances resulting easily lead to pricevolatility, to sugar production and processing, distribution companies, enterprises and residentsdownstream consumption brings many people adversely affected. Especially in recent years, thedevelopment of China ’s futures market, although relatively fast, but with the international futures market,due to a late start, the development is far from perfect. Therefore, to enhance and improve thetransparency of the futures market information, to avoid excessive speculation and improve our bubblesbecome the inevitable trend of white sugar futures market. By analyzing the sugar market and futuretrends, looking for sugar price volatility and cyclical changes in the law, while taking advantage ofdomestic and international futures market price discovery and hedging two functions, promote theoptimization and upgrading of China’s sugar industry ’s healthy development, so as to resolve the risk ofprice fluctuations of sugar, is an important goal of this study.This article is the first logical concise overview conducted by sugar, and in-depth, detailed analysis ofthe supply and demand of sugar production in the world and in Brazil, India, Thailand and otherinternational sugar producing countries, consumption, imports and exports, reserves, policy changes, andthen to China sugar production of a detailed analysis of the basic situation of supply and demand, whichconcluded that the main factor affecting the price of sugar.On the basis of the nature of the law began to explore changes in sugar prices: Through introductionof domestic futures market, the spot price of the intrinsic theory of relevance elaborate focus on analyzingthe difference of sugar-based movements, the spread between monthly, seasonal rule changes, etc., whilethe future price outlook analysis.In recent years, the focus of this article is based on data through cointegration test, VAR model andGranger causality test, the relationship between the spot price of sugar at home and abroad and the impact on in-depth empirical research, the main conclusions can be summarized as following:(1) lngjxh, lnlzxh, lnmtqh, lnztqh cointegrated, namely the existence of long-term stable equilibriumrelationship between them.(2) Causality test showed that the conduction velocity sugar futures market price transmissionmechanism is faster than the spot market price of sugar conduction velocity. Which mainly affected thedomestic spot price of sugar Zheng sugar futures prices and the impact of international sugar futures prices.The international spot price of sugar on the domestic sugar spot price impact is relatively slow.(3) The error correction model also found that international sugar prices higher spot prices lowerdomestic sugar actually cause the conclusion does not fit the facts. The reason, partly because of the sugarwith the international sugar market, the spot market is not fully standards, such as the implementation ofChina’s sugar import quota and the quota imports, while sugar smuggling is more serious, leading to thespot price of sugar and the international spot price of sugar relations with the facts and basic logic does notmatch. The other reason could be the model for further in-depth and correction.Consolidated domestic sugar market structure, the status quo of China’s sugar industry, the price ofsugar in the law Finally, given how involved in the sugar futures market enterprises to use the sugarindustry to promote the optimization and upgrading of a number of recommendations and stabledevelopment of:Sugar production, processing and trade enterprises to use the futures market to guide productionoperations. Corresponds to sugarcane farmers and upstream production enterprises, through the analysis ofprice movements forward contracts, forward contracts, the level of monthly spreads, the difference is nowthe base period level, reasonable estimates of future spot prices of sugar, in order to achieve the purpose ofmaximizing profits. Sugar-related enterprises to use the futures market to complete the procurement ofinnovation spot sales model. As the sugar futures market with physical delivery unwinding mechanism, thespot price and the goods have unity. Using physical delivery futures market exit mechanism, involvinginnovative companies can complete the purchase and sales model. Especially in basis levels in the normalrange of fluctuation, while not up to the timing of the buyout, by the middle of traders in the futures pricepoint disk utilization patterns, while locking the upstream and downstream of the purchase price of sugarspot price of sugar sales to achieve profits locking purposes in advance. Sugar-related enterprises to use the futures market to defuse price risk. Hedging with futures markets function, therefore, involve sugarcompanies how to use the futures market to mitigate the risk of price fluctuation is one of the key factors toachieve steady development of business and industry. Sugar companies involved in the use of futuresmarkets to achieve trade finance. Sugar companies involved in the funding constraints, will meet by gradesugar sugar delivery to the designated spot to pull delivery warehouse, registered sugar spot into a standardwarehouse receipt. While the standard pledge of warehouse receipts sugar to banks, investment companies,trading companies, cash available appropriate funding in order to achieve the needs of financing. In thespot when the redemption fund to be lenient, allowing businesses a more important way to solve the urgentneeds of funds. |
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