An Analysis About Liquidity Imbalance In China:Based On The Perspective Of Bank Credit

The problem of liquidity imbalance has attracted attention from many countries and has been the central study for a long time. A suite of policies that Chinese government has adopted to switch the export-oriented economy model, stimulate investment and domestic demand along with the passive throw in monetary base under the situation of twin surpluses have gradually shaped the excessive liquidity in China. And a series of stimulus policies has been adopted by Chinese government in order to step out of the shadow of financial crisis triggered by the US sub-prime crisis in2008among which the four trillion stimulus plan in2009brought a hot debate on the over issue of RMB and intensified excessive liquidity. Particularly under this excessive liquidity in China’s macro economy, a series of issues such as housing price staying at a high level, money shortage in the banking system and financing difficulty in small and micro businesses has happed which reflect the basic situation of liquidity imbalance in China. This article mainly studies those issues above and gives the causes as well as reasonable suggestion regarding liquidity imbalance.Based on the perspective of bank credit, this article gives literature review on credit and liquidity imbalance and elaborates the importance of commercial bank credit in China which is also the reason why it is chosen as the main line of this article. Drawing on the aspect of credit amount of bank, term structure and flow of credit, this article deeply analyzes the current situation of liquidity imbalance in China and comes to the conclusion that liquidity surplus in virtual economy and liquidity shortage in real economy within which the liquidity surplus in real estate industry and shortage in small and micro businesses are represented. Then four aspects like commercial bank, capital market, social credit rating system and enterprise are applied to illustrate the causes of liquidity imbalance. In the empirical analysis, aggregate indicators and structure indicators are applied in stationary test, co-integration test and pulse response analysis to study the relationship between credit which lead to liquidity imbalance of real economy and virtual economy in total and structure. At last, all the conclusions are summarized and corresponding suggestions are put forward in accordance with the causes of liquidity imbalance.