| By using empirical testing and game analytical methods, this paper focusing on the analysis of herd behavior in China securities investment funds. The study includes two parts:(1) to make an empirical analysis in herd behavior from China securities investment funds;(2) to conduct a game analysis based on feedback model, for the study of herd behavior under the securities investment funds, and make a simulation from it.First of all, this study analyzed the conception of herd behavior comprehensively, whilst reviewing all the theories and models from home and abroad.In empirical research respect, by using the revised LSV method, we chose the statistics from public fund quarterly report in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchange institute websites during2010-2012as samples, from the analysis; the conclusion is that, there are serious herd behaviors in our country. The rate of herd behavior is already as much as23.92%, at the same time the rate of herd behavior of buying is higher than the rate of herd behavior of selling. Also, the herd behavior has a negative relationship with stock exchanging scale, this phenomenal particular serious in some hot sector.Also there is a game theory frame used in this study. We made a game model under the general environment of the stock market, and made a series of game analysis of equilibrium. After that, we set the maximization of a fund manager’s payback and renown as precondition, set some parameter to do a simulation. Study from the result, therefore draw the conclusion of the profit when the fund manager made their own decisions, cost coefficients and memory length can affect the herd behavior.Finally, we provided a series of solution and strategies based on our study results, including aspects such as management system, investment environment, evaluation system, upgrading the professional standards of market participators. From all above, it is aim to relieving the symptom of herd behavior. |
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