The Empirical Study Of Cash Flow Uncertainty’s Impact On Dividend Policy

Abstract:Dividend policy,as one of the three major financial decisions of a company,has always attracted the focuses of domestic and foreign scholars and investors. Because reasonable dividend policy will not only establish a good corporate image, enhance investor confidence, but also increase the likelihood of potential investments. So far. Domestic and foreign scholars study has found that dividend policy existed many influencing factors. However, as one of the factors, cash flow uncertainty,has not received enough attention of academia. Therefore, taking the cash flow uncertainty into account of the analysis framework of dividend policy can provide new perspectives for dividend policy, which can form new experience basis to specify the reasonable dividend policy for listed companies.This article,based on the special environment of capital and ownership structure in our country, paints the analysis framework of dividend policy in view of cash flow uncertainty, conbines the related theories and examples at home and abroad in a comprehensive system of carding, and analyses the cash flow uncertainty on the impact of dividend policy theory. Taking the770non-financial a-share listed companies in Shanghai and shenzhen between in the year of2005-2010, the article integrats use of eviews、spss and excel to make an empirical analysis of listed companies. In order to explore the applicability of the theory of agency theory and the signal in our country, the article takes net cash flow uncertainty and free cash flow uncertainty as indicators of cash flow uncertainty and studies the influence of the uncertainty of cash flow on the dividend policy.Last, analyse the empirical conclusions, and put forward related Suggestions.Results show that cash flow uncertainty is positively related with cash dividend and stock dividend payments inclination, and is negative correlated with the cash dividend payment, but is positively related with the stock dividend payments intensity. This suggests that when the uncertainty of cash flow increases, the listed companies will choose to continue to pay cash dividend and reduce intensity, while stock dividend will continue to distribution and increase the intensity of the release.In addition, the above research results show that the agency theory,the signal theory and financial conservative behavior have certain rationality in the capital market in China.Dividend policy is not only a later paid work, at the same time,it can also play a role beforehand expectation. So it can not only use a kind of dividend theory to explain many influence factors on the company’s dividend policy...