The Analysis Of Individual Investors’ Securities Speculative Behaviors

Since China’s securities market established in the early90’s, the scale isbeing expanded and the system is being improved, but the investmentsystem is still flawed. Under the conditon of deepening the level of China’sopening up, and foreign capital being an important force of institutions inChina’s securities market, and compared to institutions investors in securitiesmarket, individual investors being the vulnerable groups,our country continuedto emphasize on the protection of individual investors as the representative ofvulnerable groups, so that we ignored the the reasonable and effectiveregulation of individual investors’ conducts which cause the thick atmospherein the market speculation.This requires us to analysize and study thepreferences of individual investors and their institutional environment and theinteraction between the preferences of individual investors and theirinstitutional environment, and then find securities speculation laws of individualinvestors, and raise some effective regulation’s proposal from the root of theirspeculation behaviors, in order to form a good stock market investment systemin China, so that it can be developed with a stable healthy rapid and normalway.This paper adopts normative analysis, game analysis, quantitative analysisand other methods, drawing on the latest research of behavioral economics,game theory and other disciplines on the behavior analysis, trially summarizesand expands the analysis of the relationship among the preferences, thesystem and behavior. This paper argues that preferences not only determinesbehavior, but also affect the system through the social preferences, and thuswhich causes the system to make a direct impact on behavior; In addition, thesystem has some influence on behavior itself, the results of behavior oftenreact directly to the preferences and system, preferences have an impact onthe system, the mechanisms’ relationships among the three constitute aclosed circle together, and evolves over time.In this paper, based on the modelof "policy-making and game equilibrium model of investors",of which to furtherdeepen the analysis, from a relatively new perspective we propose anindividual investors’ investment model under the interactive mode ofpreferences and system, and conclude the individual investors’ securities lawsof speculation from the individual investors’ investment model. We believe thatthe government expecting policy is interrelated and interdependent to individual and institution investors’s expecting, the formulation of governmentpolicy is based on the individual investors’ and others’ behavior andpreferences, it exists a gradually cycling and evolving process that behaviorand preferences have an influence on the formulation of governmentpolicy,and then preferences affect behavior.There is a quantity of changes inreaction and an extent of responsiveness not only to the space of governmentexpecting strategic actions, but also to the space of agency’s expectingstrategic actions for individual investors,which reflects the individual investors’"political effect" and "herding."Besides,the securities’ speculation laws ofindividual investors in China mainly show as for herding, the policy effect,speculation effects, etc..In the light of China’s securities market practice, thispaper makes a further analisis of every individual investors’ securities law ofspeculation based on the perspective of preferences and system interactivemode,and propose some effective suggestions of regulation for individualinvestors’ securities speculative behavior in China.